SOUTH BEACH SHOCKER
Mike Vaccaro: Fred, I know this may sound like the craziest kind of pie-eyed optimism, but I really do think the Nets have a puncher’s chance against the Heat. They are among the hottest teams in basketball right now and had to really turn on the jets just to make the playoffs, while the Heat have been on cruise control for months. I think that allows them to steal Game 1 today, and vaults them right into the series. And we still have no idea how this Heat team will respond to playoff glare, and the pressure of being a No. 1 seed.
Kerber: I agree with you. Completely. Or almost completely. I would not be at all surprised if the Nets won today. With Jason Kidd (who I think sort of proved he might be the best point guard in our area) and Vince Carter, the Nets have two ridiculously talented guys who can take over any game. And Kidd is pushing the ball as well as ever. But (there’s always a but), the Heat have Shaq. In 25 words or less why will the Heat win? Shaq. There, I saved 24 words.
Vaccaro: The thing is, if the Nets do jump out quickly in this series, and they do serve notice to the Heat that this is going to be a series, and not a formality, then you start to play into the Heat’s psychoses, and that’s where it could get interesting. Look, in the same way you can’t fall back on the Nets’ splendid playoff record the past few years (since it’s a different cast of characters), you can’t slap the Heat’s inglorious playoff past on these players. But if the Heat do fall behind in this series … well, the fans are going to start shivering like crazy. And the players won’t help but sense that, too.
Kerber: This is frightening. I’m doing one of these with someone who makes sense. I know I (Shaq) sound like a (Shaq) broken record, but (Shaq) the bottom line is (Shaq) the Heat have Shaq. I believe the Nets get one of the first two games in Miami. They are as dangerous an eighth seed as has been seen in a while. And yeah, throw out the history. But when it all comes down to it, the Heat will keep it simple: post up Shaq and run pick and rolls with Dwyane Wade. The Nets will give a great fight, but the Heat didn’t win 59 games with mirrors.
Vaccaro: Agreed. If the Nets win, it will be even more remarkable and even more unexpected than when the eighth-seeded Knicks ousted the top-seeded Heat back in the ’99 playoffs. That said, we’ve both seen what Kidd is capable of when he’s challenged. And usually, when he’s healthy (meaning you can throw out last year’s Game 7 debacle with the Pistons) in addition to being challenged, he revises everyone’s idea of what’s possible. If Kidd and Carter give us the kind of extended show we’ve seen in tantalizing previews thus far, there’s no telling what the Nets are capable of. And if this goes seven … well, who’s the pressure going to be on then?
Kerber: The little twist in that scenario, Mike, is that a Game 7 would be played in Miami, where the Heat have been near invincible. They lost one home playoff game last year and they finished up this season winning 20 of 21 games in Miami. Believe me, any praise you give Kidd is justified you’re preaching to the choir. But let’s not overlook Wade, who gave glimpses of greatness last year including the playoffs and followed it up with an All-NBA caliber season. But take all that homecourt, Wade, a better bench residing in Miami and come back to one factor: Shaq. Even at 80 percent, Shaq is still 80-percent better than other NBA centers.