BETTING THE AD BUDGETS
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With the new fall TV season starting this week, buyers of commercial time who have billions riding on the broadcast networks will soon find out which shows are hits and which are misses.
Although there is no way to determine a sure-fire winner, ad buyers have spent hours watching the pilots, analyzing the schedules and coming up with their predictions to send to clients.
More than 26 shows are set to debut on the major networks. Last year, the networks introduced 27 new shows but only 10 are returning.
Several factors play a role in whether a freshman show finds an audience, including the time it airs, the program that precedes it and the competition it faces. Shows can stay on the air because they draw an affluent audience or offset the competition even if they don’t post big numbers.
While there is rarely a consensus, several ad buyers singled out some shows that they believe have a good shot at returning for a second season
CBS’ “Cane” seems to have the right ingredients, although it has a tough time slot at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, when well-established rivals “Law & Order: SVU” and “Boston Legal” also air.
The slick drama stars Jimmy Smits, an established leading actor in prime time, as the powerful head of a Miami family that runs a sugar and rum business.
“Jimmy Smits is a draw,” said Andy Donchin, director of national broadcast for Carat, a major ad-buying firm. “It’s a show that could really work for CBS.”
Ad buyers said the CW’s “Gossip Girls,” a teen soap about privileged prep schoolers, is about a near-perfect fit for the channel’s younger viewers. The show airs at 9 p.m. Wednesdays.
Also on in that time slot is ABC’s “Private Practice,” the “Grey’s Anatomy” spinoff starring Kate Walsh as a doctor who trades in Seattle for Santa Monica.
Last season, a special two-hour episode of “Grey’s” that promoted the spinoff series received lukewarm reviews from critics, but ad buyers believe the show will get a huge boost from the built-in audience.
John Rash, head of broadcast negotiations at ad agency Campbell-Mithun, said in his fall report that the show is “as close to a sure thing as the new season – or network television – gets.”
ABC’s “Pushing Daisies” is a favorite of the network, which has lavished it with a massive ad budget. The show is also getting tons of positive buzz for its quirky characters and striking visual effects.
Ad buyers are clearly rooting for the show but worry it will have a tough time finding an audience.
Easier than scoring out a hit may be fingering a failure. Several ad buyers said ABC’s “Cavemen,” based on the popular characters from the Geico commercials, will be one of the first victims of the network ax.
Another show that seems destined for the scrap heap is CBS’ “Viva Laughlin,” which has drawn unflattering parallels to “Cop Rock,” the ill-fated 1990 series.
“These tough businessmen and shady characters break into song,” said Gary Carr, director of broadcast services at TargetCast, a media buying and planning firm. “It’s laughable.”