NBA futures markets continue to be in constant flux with blockbuster signings and trades making headlines through the summer. Has the dust finally settled?
Let’s assume for now it has. Here are the latest odds to win the 2020 NBA championship from William Hill.
- Favorites: Lakers 3/1, Clippers 7/2, Bucks 6/1, Rockets 8/1, 76ers 9/1, Warriors 12/1, Jazz 15/1, Nuggets 15/1, Celtics 25/1.
For the top contenders, are those fair odds? Using percentage equivalents, you can see that those nine favorites already gobble up more than 100 percent of win possibilities. For each team, dividing the number on the right of the slash by the sum of the two numbers, you get: Lakers 25 percent, Clippers 22 percent, Bucks 14 percent, Rockets 11 percent, 76ers 10 percent, Warriors 8 percent, Jazz 6 percent, Nuggets 6 percent, Celtics 6 percent.
That’s 106 percent before you get to any longer shots at 30/1 (3 percent), 50/1 (2 percent) or 100/1 (1 percent). Sportsbooks build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge. One of those favorites is extremely likely to win. At those prices, it would be tough to say any is a “great bet” for value.
Another way to look at returns is to imagine potential playoff matchups. A futures bet is essentially a “parlay” that asks your choice to win every playoff round. The ticket can’t cash unless your team wins the championship. What price would you take the Lakers in a head-to-head series against the Rockets? Or, the Clippers? Or, the eventual Eastern Conference representative (probably the Bucks or 76ers)?
If you see those battles as roughly pick ’em … well, a three-team parlay at pick ’em would pay 6/1. That’s not even counting any profit from an opening-round bet. Would the Lakers be such heavy favorites individually over a Rockets-Clippers-Bucks gauntlet that the payoff would drop to 3/1? You can’t even assume LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be at full health. By the time we get there, the Lakers might be series underdogs, with a rollover strategy (betting the team round-by-round and re-investing the full return) earning something closer to 8/1.
VSiN strongly encourages bettors to use a “parlay calculator” (available at our website) to map out payout possibilities. You’ll understand why very few “picks” to win a championship are actually good “bets.”
Finishing out William Hill’s odds for NBA fans:
- Longshots: Nets 30/1, Trail Blazers 35/1, Raptors 40/1, Pacers 60/1, Spurs 60/1, Mavericks 60/1, Heat 75/1.
The Nets’ odds would improve if it becomes clear Kevin Durant can return from injury in time to make a difference (Recent reports stating the Nets were as low as 8/1 to win the title were alluding to an offshore outlier, not William Hill or any Las Vegas book).
- No-shots: Pelicans 100/1, Magic 125/1, Kings 125/1, Hawks 150/1, Bulls 200/1, Knicks 250/1, Pistons 250/1, Timberwolves 250/1, Grizzlies 250/1, Suns 250/1, Wizards 300/1, Thunder 300/1, Cavaliers 500/1, Hornets 500/1.
Are the Knicks worth a flyer at 250/1? Too much dust has settled for that!