It will be hard for NBA MVP favorites Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo to damage their cases beyond repair early in the season. Nevertheless, it is a great time to start to find guys with upward or downward momentum and either rule them out or take a piece of a longer price as the odds move.
Case in point: Kevin Durant. After the first two games of the season, Durant saw his odds get cut from 12/1 to 8/1 at DraftKings, an increase from 7.7 percent implied probability to 11.1 percent. However, a forced quarantine due to COVID-19 protocols has Durant sidelined for four games or 5.5 percent of his season. The Nets also seem intent on resting him in back-to-back situations, thus it seems Durant will miss quite a bit of time this year. Maybe too much to be considered a likely MVP candidate, especially at a short 8/1 price.
One name I wagered on Monday night was the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum at 25/1, which is available at the Westgate in Las Vegas. Tatum was averaging 26.3 points per game on 46.7 percent shooting entering Wednesday night’s game in Miami. He was hitting 42.9 percent of his 3-point attempts while taking a career-high 7.9 per game. He even hit a game-winning shot in prime time. Yes, his teammate Jaylen Brown was averaging slightly more points on better overall shooting, but Tatum has had the deeper impact statistically.
Boston was +11.4 when Tatum is on the floor and Brown is sitting. Boston’s defensive efficiency improves by 5.4 points with Tatum compared with just 1.2 with Brown, and Tatum turns the ball over much less frequently. I have confidence that as the season wears on Tatum will separate himself from Brown statistically and that he will find himself in an MVP conversation that, so far, is not deep.
Toronto’s Tumultuous Takeoff
Few teams lost as much talent as the Raptors did this offseason, and it has been glaring through the first two weeks of the season. Toronto was 1-5 straight up and ATS entering its game Wednesday night in Phoenix, and there was no sign that the Raptors will be able to cure what ails them.
Toronto’s center minutes are now being filled by a rotation of Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher. The result has been the worst rebounding rate in the league (45.6 percent), the 27th-best defensive rebounding rate and 23rd-ranked offensive rebounding rate. Opponents are averaging 13.8 second-chance points per game as a result, and the Raptors’ defensive efficiency has suffered because of it.
On offense, the problems that plagued Toronto last season have only worsened. The Raptors last season finished 15th in half-court efficiency (94.5), 25th in rim shooting (61.2 percent) and 16th overall offensive efficiency. They took 38.9 percent of their attempts from deep to make up for a poor half-court offense, and that led to them being overly reliant on good shooting to win. In losses last season they shot 31.8 percent from deep, but 39.5 percent in wins. That’s a really big gulf.
This season, all of those numbers have been worse, and Kyle Lowry is on an expiring deal. Should things continue to go south, could there be a fire sale on the horizon for a team just two years removed from a title?