VSiN’s NFL expert offers his betting advice for Saturday’s divisional round games.
49ers at Packers (-5.5, 47.5)
The concern about 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s thumb injury has morphed into major worry about the sprained throwing shoulder he suffered against the Cowboys. The 49ers wound up tied for the league lead in yards per play during the regular season with the Buccaneers. They were advanced metrics darlings all season long and a team that many people have a great amount of respect for in the betting community.
Garoppolo’s injuries have not been met with a whole lot of optimism this week in the betting market. The 49ers are being pretty coy and Garoppolo hasn’t taken a lot of practice reps, pushing this number out to Packers -6 before it slipped back to -5.5.
Rather than look at the side with all of those question marks, the Under is my favorite play in this game. The stats suggest that we should see a shootout, but one quarterback is hurt and also has to play in the frigid conditions of Green Bay with a grip issue because of his thumb injury. Maybe that suggests a play on the Packers, but I also find Green Bay to be overrated on offense.
The Packers did end up with 5.8 yards per play, but also finished seventh in percentage of drives ending with points, despite being tied for the fewest turnovers in the NFL with 13. They took excellent care of the football and should have capitalized more often. For most of the season, the Packers were even bigger laggards in the yards-per-play department. Other teams faltering around them actually pushed them up the leaderboard a bit.
Green Bay does not have a fast-paced, high-powered offense. It is a very methodical group that steadily moves forward, but takes time to do so. Imagine being tied for the fewest turnovers, having Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and finishing 10th in points scored. Furthermore, for all of the high marks and metrics for the 49ers offense, they were 13th in points scored.
Mix in some single-digit temperatures and below-zero wind chills and I think you have the makings of a lower-scoring game on Saturday. The 49ers finished in the top-five in yards per play on defense and Green Bay was a middle-of-the-pack unit, but will get a boost from an injured Garoppolo or an inexperienced Trey Lance.
Pick: Under 47.5.
Bengals at Titans (-3.5, 47.5)
By weighted DVOA at Football Outsiders, the Titans are far and away the worst of the eight remaining teams. It is reasonable to mention that Derrick Henry missed half the season and any team would suffer without its best player, but the Titans just don’t fit the mold of a No. 1 seed and don’t really deserve to be favored by more than a field goal.
There are plenty of questions about the Bengals, who just ended a streak of more than three decades without a playoff win, but I said from the start that Cincinnati is the highest-variance team in the playoffs. They could very well have lost last week to the Raiders, but can also beat any AFC team with Joe Burrow and an improving offense.
The Titans have some big, signature wins and are facing the Bengals, who are the second-weakest team left by DVOA. I believe those two factors have this line higher than it should be.
Pick: Bengals, +3.5.