Here we are at the final installment of our regional breakdowns for the NCAA Tournament.
We’ve already broken down the West, East and South, so now it’s time to focus on the Midwest Region. Kansas (+200) is the top seed in the region and are the favorites to reach New Orleans.
Closely following are No. 2 Auburn (+260) and No. 5 Iowa (+375) before a big drop-off to No. 3 Wisconsin (12/1) and No. 4 Providence (25/1).
As we close out our regional previews, here are my evaluations of the best value, favorite to avoid and a pick to advance.
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Value Pick: No. 2 Auburn Tigers (+260)
Truth be told, I don’t see much value in this region as compared to the other three.
However, I promised a pick and its Auburn for the simple reason it should walk its way into the regional final. Although I have the Tigers power-rated as the weakest overall two-seed, I simultaneously have Wisconsin power-rated as the weakest overall three seed. Further, all the other realistic contenders in Auburn’s half of the section — No. 6 LSU, No. 7 USC and No. 10 Miami — don’t have the talent of a regional final side.
That said, there are a good number of positives associated with this Auburn squad. It ranks 10th in adjusted efficiency margin and owns the sixth-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the tournament.
It also posted a number of impressive victories this season — one each against Kentucky and LSU and two against Alabama — and had a top-20 strength of schedule among tournament teams, so we know Auburn is battle-tested.
However, its finish to the season was less-than-inspiring. The Tigers posted four losses in its final nine games. That said, my lack of confidence in other sides leads me to believe this a safe option that could provide a hedge opportunity making it the best “value.”
Steer Clear: No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers (12/1)
Some bettors might gravitate toward a high price on a top-three seed, but I believe there’s a reason behind this price.
There’s a chance the Badgers get knocked out in its opening round matchup against Colgate, who rank sixth in the tournament field in effective field goal percentage. For context, the Badgers are 67th in the same category.
Further, Wisconsin sit 33rd in adjusted efficiency margin (per kenpom.com) and enter the tournament as the fourth-luckiest team in the field.
Two consecutive losses against Nebraska and Michigan State to close out the season won’t inspire much confidence either. Lastly, Big Ten Player of the Year Johnny Davis could still be feeling the effects of an ankle injury. In the event he’s not fully healthy, I can’t see Wisconsin reaching any better than the regional semifinals.
So while the price may be tempting, stay away from Wisconsin and make them prove it to you.
Pick to Advance — No. 1 Kansas (+200)
Ultimately, I think the winner of a theoretical regional semifinal between Kansas and Iowa reaches New Orleans, but I just trust the Jayhawks that much more.
Head coach Bill Self’s side sits sixth in adjusted efficiency margin, but it simultaneously played the third-hardest schedule in the nation. Now — as referenced earlier — the committee handed them a region with what I have rated as the weakest two, three and four seeds.
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The only potential stumbling block is the Hawkeyes. Iowa will likely match Kansas’ pace and try to run. If they get hot, Iowa is capable of betting anyone. However, it also has the 41st-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the tournament, and I don’t think that’s sustainable especially against a Kansas offense that sits sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Finally, because of the regional make-up, I believe there’s an implied probability edge with Kansas. I would have its price closer. to +145 so I’m happy to take a stab at +200.