Post Action Betting

Tony Finau, Tyrell Hatton worthy of bets after Masters Day 1

By
Social Links for Nick Hennion, Action Network
Published April 7, 2022
Updated April 7, 2022, 9:12 p.m. ET

Day one of The Masters has concluded and 2020 runner-up Sungjae Im finds himself atop the leaderboard.

Amongst the other headlines, though, were Tiger Woods posting a one-under 71, Cameron Smith shooting a four-under 68 and Dustin Johnson continuing his strong form at Augusta with a three-under 69.

However, we’re here to discuss the updated betting board as we attempt to find value on players after their opening rounds.

So without further ado, here are my two favorite live bets on the heels of the opening round. Odds are subject to change and are reflective at time of writing.

Best Bet #1 – Tony Finau Top-20 Finish (+100), Draftkings Sportsbook

Although I wasn’t high on Finau entering the tournament, his first round has reassured me he’s capable of another high finish this weekend.

The two-time PGA Tour winner posted a one-under 71 Thursday and should receive more favorable conditions when he tees off Friday morning. Overall, Finau ranked ninth in the field in both strokes-gained: tee-to-green and strokes-gained: approach, so we know we don’t have to worry about Finau’s ball-striking.

He also performed very well on the Par 5’s, playing those four holes three-under par. But perhaps most importantly, Finau improved his putting drastically on his pre-tournament ranking. Over the last 50 rounds, Finau ranked 67th in the field in strokes-gained: putting but was 39th in the field for Thursday’s round.

Tony Finau of the United States plays his shot from the eighth tee during the third day of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 25, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Tony Finau is the pick to choose when betting on the Valero Texas Open. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

If Finau can be average with the flat-stick this week, I believe his approach play can vault him into a solid finish. Pre-tournament, he was 15th in the field in strokes-gained: approach over the last 36 rounds and and 16th over the last 24, a stat that is more closely correlated with finishing position than SG: Putting, per datagolf.com.

Add in that Finau has posted three top-10 finishes in four starts at The Masters and I believe this price should be closer to -120.

Best Bet #2 – Tyrrell Hatton Top-20 Finish (+120), DraftKings Sportsbook

The only way I know how to describe Hatton’s opening round is….odd.

An even-par 72 is nothing to hate, but the underlying strokes-gained data was all over the place. Hatton ranked first in the field in SG: T2G, fifth in SG: approach and 23rd in SG: around-the-green. However, he was simultaneously 90th of 91 players in SG: putting for the first round.

That is uncharacteristically bad for Hatton, who entered the week 14th in the field in SG: putting over the last 36 rounds. Plus, in his two most recent rounds at Augusta National, Hatton gained 0.9 strokes on the field on average and 1.72 strokes total.

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If Hatton can improve on a distatrous putting round, I think he could himself on the first page of the leaderboard by the end of day two. Plus, much like Finau, Hatton was able to take advantage of the Par 5’s, posting three birdies and one par across those four holes.

That represents a consistent trend for the Englishman, who arrived at Augusta National this week fifth in SG: Par 5’s over the last 24 rounds and eighth over the last 36. Assuming that continues, expect Hatton’s short game to catch up as he (hopefully) posts a third top-20 in his last four starts.