Do you remember the last time the Bucks lost to the Bulls with Giannis Antetokounmpo? It was the day after Christmas in 2017. Since then, the whole world has turned upside-down, and the Bulls still can’t find a way to defeat Antetokounmpo.
Including Game 1 of this series, the Bucks have won 17 of the last 18 against the Bulls with the only loss coming on the last day of the 2020-21 season with the Bucks resting their starters.
Despite the Bucks shooting just 10 of 38 (26.3 percent) from behind the arc and putting up an Offensive Rating of 93.5, the Bulls still couldn’t win Game 1. It’s unlikely the Bucks’ offense will perform that poorly again, and with the Bulls’ struggles defending Antetokounmpo, they’re all but drawing dead. Antetokounmpo put up 27 points on 10 of 19 (52.6 percent) shooting along with 16 rebounds and three assists despite playing just 33 minutes due to foul trouble.
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With more Antetokounmpo minutes and shooting regression from Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, the Bucks have too much firepower for the Bulls.
DeMar DeRozan has had a monster season, but Holiday may be his kryptonite. DeRozan’s historical playoff struggles continued in Game 1 with 6 of 25 (24 percent) shooting. While he likely won’t shoot that poorly again, Holiday has held him 39 percent shooting in five games. And when Holiday has been the primary defender, DeRozan has scored just 34 points on 33 shots (per NBA.com).
With the Bucks’ defense limiting the Bulls offensive efficiency, Zach LaVine not completely healthy and Chicago not shooting enough 3s, it’s unlikely we’ll see a high offensive output from the Bulls. Factor in their inability to defend in the absence of Lonzo Ball, and the Bucks should win this going away.
The Bucks are one of the worst third-quarter teams, so I’ll back them to start fast.
The play: Bucks first half -5.5 (-115, BetMGM).