We’ve passed through the first major checkpoint of the NHL offseason with the first round of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft now in the rear-view mirror.Â
And while we’re still three months away from Opening Night, the days leading up to free agency are not a bad time to make an early move for Stanley Cup futures bets if you can get ahead of the market on a team you think will make a big splash in free agency.
2023 Stanley Cup Odds
Buy Low: Seattle Kraken (+15000, PointsBet)
The Seattle Kraken were in an unusual spot ahead of their inaugural season. Usually expectations for expansion teams are quite low, but after what happened with the Vegas Golden Knights, the hockey market had some confidence that the Kraken would be able to compete what projected to be a soft Pacific Division. Some modelers had the Kraken as a top-10 team in the entire league entering 2021-22 and while the market wasn’t that high on Seattle, it still was relatively bullish with the Kraken checking in at 30/1 to win the Stanley Cup.
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Even though their inaugural roster lacked scoring power, the general consensus was that Seattle’s defense and goaltending would be good enough to keep it competitive in the Pacific Division. Unfortunately, Philipp Grubauer — who the Kraken signed to a six-year deal with a $5.9M cap hit — struggled all season in goal, dooming a team that couldn’t outscore poor goaltending.
Despite the sluggish first season, there are reasons to believe that Seattle could outrun its 150/1 price tag right now. For one, the Kraken are expected to be major players in the free agent market with nearly $23 million in cap space. Rumors have Seattle connected to Johnny Gaudreau, Nazem Kadri, and Filip Forsberg should the three forwards hit the market, and nabbing any one of them would infuse some much needed upside to an offense that was 29th in scoring in 2021-22.
In addition to whatever they can land in free agency, Seattle also have two top-5 draft picks ready to make an impact in Matthew Beniers (No. 2 overall, 2021) and Shane Wright (No. 4 overall, 2022).
An improved offense will go a long way to helping Seattle climb its way into relevancy, but it will all be moot if Grubauer doesn’t bounce back into form. And while goalies are hard to project, it’s hard to imagine Grubauer — who was a .923 goaltender in 101 games with Washington and a .918 goalie in 113 contests with Colorado — doesn’t improve substantially in his second spin with Seattle.
In all likelihood, the Seattle Kraken are not going to win the Stanley Cup. But right now, they’re set up to improve as much as any team in the offseason and are worth keeping an eye on as we head towards free agency.
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Sell: Calgary Flames (+1800)
We’re now just five days from the opening of free agency and the Flames still don’t have an answer from superstar Johnny Gaudreau on whether or not he’ll re-sign with the team. Of course, should Gaudreau return to Calgary this outlook changes a bit, but it’s still a bit rich for a team that has other holes to fill aside from Johnny Hockey.
And if Gaudreau does leave, which seems like a legitimate possibility, it could set off a cataclysmic chain of events for a team that is coming off a terrific season. There are rumors that if Gaudreau walks, restricted free agent Matthew Tkachuk could be on his way out as well, though that seems a little unlikely.
Calgary was a complete team last season. The Flames were well-coached, got great goaltending and everybody on the roster played to their role exquisitely. But you’d be kidding yourself if you thought that Calgary could continue its ascendancy without Gaudreau, who was the key cog in the best line in the entire league last season with Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm.
So while the Flames will still have plenty going for them even if Gaudreau leaves, they should not be priced this short given their current circumstances.