The Yankees scored five runs in the third inning, propelling them to a 6-5 win over the Red Sox. Josh Donaldson led the way with a grand slam home run as New York extended its divisional lead to 14.5 games.
The victory also improved the Yankees to 3-1 on the year against the Red Sox as the two teams get set to continue their series on Friday night (7:10 p.m. ET, YES Network and NESN).
Nestor Cortes will start for New York, while Boston will counter with Connor Seabold.
And with this being Seabold’s fourth career start, he’ll face a massive step up in class against a Yankees team that leads all of baseball with 60 wins.
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Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: NYY (-150) vs. BOS (+125)
Spread: NYY-+1.5 (+105) vs. BOS +1.5 (-130)
Total: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Yankees vs. Red Sox probable pitchers
Nestor Cortes (2.44) vs. Connor Seabold (8.31)
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction
Things can’t get much worse for Boston as it’s currently dealing with multiple injuries to its starting rotation. Nate Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock, and Rich Hill are sidelined, while Chris Sale and James Paxton have yet to make their season debut. That explains why Seabold is getting the start, as the California native is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA and a 2.08 WHIP.
Seabold’s first start of the year came against a Blue Jays team with similar offensive talents as the Yankees. The outing was probably one to forget as he allowed seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work.
While Seabold might be the 14th-ranked prospect in the Red Sox farm system, I was surprised to learn that he’s already 26 years old. I would think that if so he’s highly regarded by the Red Sox; why isn’t he already a mainstay in the rotation by now?
Given what we’ve seen from him thus far, it’s difficult to be overly optimistic about his chances against this formidable Yankees lineup.
As for Cortes, he’s having a breakout year as he’s 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. While his advanced numbers point to a slight regression, his 2.59 xERA and 3.35 FIP are still above average.
Cortes does have some familiarity with this Red Sox lineup. In 39 plate appearances, Boston is batting .297 with a .403 wOBA and .707 xSLG.
Boston’s also had success against left-handers this season, as evidenced by a .267/.343/.438 split vs. .257/.318/.406 against right-handers. As a result, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw plenty of runs in this contest.
Usually, I’d look to isolate a young pitcher like Seabold and fade him in the first five innings. However, given the Red Sox’s success against left-handers, this game could have a bit of variance. Thus, it makes more sense to play the full nine innings while taking advantage of the Yankees’ exceptional bullpen that ranks second with a 2.64 ERA.
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According to Rotowire’s bullpen usage, Boston has three relievers who’ve thrown at least 30 pitches over the past three days.
In contrast, the Yankees are in good shape as none of their relievers have thrown more than 26 pitches during that span. That should bode well for the Yankees in their quest to pick another win over their divisional rivals.
Yankees vs. Red Sox pick
Yankees ML -150