2022 British Open golf picks, predictions: Rory McIlroy headlines derivative bets

Having shared our statistical modeling strategy for the British Open, we’ll now begin to share our best bets.

This week, I’ve identified three markets — one top-10, one top-20 and one top-30 — that provide bettors the best overall value. In some cases, that value is derived from the modeling output while others are a combination of relevant course history and their underlying statistics.

So, without further hesitation, here are my three best derivative bets for the 2022 Open Championship. All odds are reflective at time of writing and subject to movement.

Golf picks and predictions for the Open Championship

Best Bet #1 – Rory McIlroy Top-10 Finish (+130)

Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

There’s one big concern with Rory this week (more on that later), but my brain seems convinced he’ll do well.

Over his last 12 qualifying rounds, McIlroy rates out second overall in the field behind only Xander Schauffele. In those 12 rounds, the former Open champion ranks fifth or better in the field in all but two categories and 20th or better in all but one category.

Most impressively, McIlroy sits first in SG: Approach, first in Birdies or Better Gained and second in SG: Par 4’s. He’s also seventh in the field in driving distance and fifth in GIRs gained.

Now for the troubling part: over the last 12 rounds, McIlroy ranks 92nd in the field in three-putt avoidance. That is certainly not ideal at a venue that requires precision putting on greens that are both sloped and feature a number of undulations.

So, there’s a chance Rory’s putter goes completely crazy and he has a terrible week. However, all the other metrics point to success and he owns good results at the most important correlated track — seven top-10’s at Augusta National.

Add in that Rory has recorded five top-10’s and seven top-20’s in his last seven events and I’m willing to overlook that flaw.

Best Bet #2 – Tony Finau Top-20 Finish (+210)

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Don’t look now, but top-10 Tony appears to be back in fine form.

The American has recorded a fourth and a second in his last four starts to pair with a T-13th in his most recent effort at The Travelers. Although the majors haven’t necessarily gone his way this year — a missed cut at the U.S. Open, tied for 30th at the PGA Championship, tied for 35th at The Masters — this track should fit his game well.

Over his last 12 qualifying rounds, Finau ranks sixth overall in the field and sits 13th in both driving distance and SG: Approach. He’s also sixth in the field in SG: Par 4’s, 16th in three-putt avoidance and first in the field in GIRs gained.

Plus, across both his last eight and 12 qualifying rounds, Finau ranks inside the top-39 in birdies or better gained is one of the most consistent players as you expand the sample size — for example, he jumps up to third in the model if you consider his last 50 qualifying rounds.

Finau also has great history at the Open — in four appearances at this major, he’s made the cut all four times and finished no worse than 27th, including two straight top-10 finishes. Add in the fact he’s recorded three top-10 finishes in five starts at Augusta National and I believe Finau is worth a buy at a great price.

Best Bet #3 – Max Homa Top-30 Finish (+130)

Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

For Homa, this play is almost entirely based on my statistical modeling as he has little relevant course history.

But, assuming Homa lives up to his underlying metrics, he could very well find himself in contention at the Old Course. Over the last 12 qualifying rounds, Homa ranks out third in the field. In that sample, he’s 28th in driving distance, 10th in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Par 4’s, and 16th in birdies or better gained.

He’s also 11th in the field in GIRs gained and possesses a decent short game — 30th in SG: Short Game — that will help him navigate St. Andrews’s tricky putting surfaces.

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Also worth noting with Homa is the fact he’s made the cut in 11 straight events now and has finished 30th or better in nine of those events. Although the two failures came at major events — 47th at the U.S. Open, 48th at the Masters — I’m encouraged by the fact he tied for 16th last week at the Scottish Open.

Plus, just his last five events have seen four finishes of 23rd or better, so he’s trending in the right direction. Bottom-line, though, the ceiling for Homa this week feels high, so I’m fine taking a solid all-around player with room to work.