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Where the Big 12 and Pac-12 TV negotiations are headed and what it means for college football’s future

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Published Oct. 24, 2022, 6:00 a.m. ET
Oregon quarterback Jacob Nix drops back to pass and Oklahoma State wide receiver Bryson Green runs for a touchdown during NCAA football games on October 22, 2022.
AP (2)

Let’s do some informed speculation about what is happening and what likely will happen with the Big 12 and Pac-12 TV deals. What I’m going to outline will impact whether there is a lot more college football realignment.

1. When it is all said and done, I think the Big 12 will end up on ESPN and Fox Sports, and the Pac-12 will be on ESPN and Amazon Prime Video.

2. I believe they will receive similar contracts. The Big 12 has been aiming for $400 million per year, but I’m not sure they will get there. They are in the $350M-$360M range with ESPN paying a much greater share than Fox because ESPN will have more and superior games if a deal happens.

Arizona State defensive back Ro Torrence (9) defends against a pass intended for Stanford wide receiver Brycen Tremayne during an NCAA college football game in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022.
The Pac-12, still featuring teams such as Arizona State and Stanford, will try to bring digital platform Amazon Prime Video into its next set of broadcast rights deals. AP

3. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 likely will seek a financial premium from digital player Amazon to try to match the Big 12’s haul. Amazon has not looked at itself as a different type of distributor as opposed to traditional players, meaning it doesn’t really believe it should have to pay more than its competition. How that plays out will be important for the Pac-12. Amazon already is working with the NFL, but the Pac-12 has to be wary of repeating the exposure problems that have occurred with its Pac-12 Network disaster. There is not much indication Apple is heavily involved (though I wouldn’t totally eliminate the possibility). Can Pac-12 get to $400M? Again, I think they may get close, but I’m not sure they will get there.