The latest chapter of the Mike White era got off to a rousing start last week, when the backup passer went off for 315 yards and three touchdowns in the Jets’ blowout win over the Bears.
Next up? The enigmatic Vikings, who have gotten off to a 9-2 start despite plainly average metrics to this point. Oddsmakers clearly don’t see much of a gap between these two teams, pricing New York as a mere 3-point underdog ahead of this NFL Week 13 clash.
Here’s how we’re betting Sunday’s contest, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
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Vikings vs. Jets prediction
- Jets +3 (-110, BetMGM)
Vikings vs. Jets prediction and analysis
If you only took a cursory glance at this matchup, you’d be forgiven for wondering why books are pricing the Vikings as near-equals to a Jets team with a worse record and a backup quarterback at the helm. Of course, that only tells part of the story.
Minnesota isn’t your average 9-2 team; in fact, it might be the worst such team in NFL history. The Vikings entered last week as the first team in league history to win eight of its first 10 games with a negative scoring differential, which was bumped up to a pedestrian plus-5 after an uninspiring win over the Patriots. They still rank 22nd in DVOA (-9.2%) and are the first 9-2 team in the DVOA era (since 1982) with a negative such mark.
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Conversely, the Jets have been a top-10 team by advanced metrics despite mostly horrid play from former starter Zach Wilson, who was benched last week after posting the league’s worst completion percentage (55.6%) for the second straight season. And, much like last year, White stepped in and ignited an otherwise talented offense held back by shoddy QB play.
Minnesota owns one of the worst pass defenses in football, ranking 27th per DVOA and allowing the NFL’s most passing yards per game (276.1) after getting sliced up by Mac Jones (382 yards) a week ago. It’s an ideal matchup for White to continue his heroics, especially if breakout rusher Zonovan Knight – who set a franchise record with 103 total yards in his pro debut – can provide some support against a so-so Vikings front.
Vikings vs. Jets odds (BetMGM)
- Vikings -3 (-110), moneyline -155
- Jets +3 (-110), moneyline +130
- O/U 44 (-110)
You can make a compelling case that New York is the better team in this matchup, regardless of record, and that White’s promotion makes the Jets even more dangerous offensively. If the defense can maintain its top-five pressure rate (24.7%) and make Kirk Cousins uncomfortable in the pocket, this game has upset written all over it.