In a lot of ways, the Montreal Canadiens are doing what the Ottawa Senators did the past two seasons.
A young, rebuilding team with plenty of exciting talent to build around, the Canadiens are punching up better than any other team in the NHL this season. The Habs, who finished dead last in 2021-22, are 12-12 when they close as the underdog this season, and if you had bet $100 on all 24 of those contests you’d be up $827, which equates to a 34.5% ROI.
And when they close at +150 or longer, Montreal is 7-8 and would have netted a $100 bettor $599 for a 39.9% ROI.
Underdog bettors will look back on the Sens fondly the past two seasons as they built a reputation as a scrappy, young team that always seemed to do well as a big pooch.
Well, now the mantle has been passed to the Habs, who are a +160 outsider in Ottawa on Wednesday night at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
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Canadiens vs. Senators (7:00 p.m. ET) prediction: Montreal Canadiens +160 (BetMGM)
The halfway mark of the NHL season is fast approaching and the Montreal Canadiens are actually ahead of the Ottawa Senators in the standings. Although nobody expected the Sens to be a powerhouse, expectations were higher than they’d been in a long time after a splashy offseason that saw Claude Giroux, Alex DeBrincat and Cam Talbot head to the Canadian capital.
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But another slow start has put the Sens at the back of the chasing pack, while the Habs have overperformed and are just four points out of a playoff spot as we head towards the 30-game mark. That’s quite impressive for a team that was among the favorites to win the wooden spoon (finish with the worst record in the regular season) before Opening Night.
As encouraging as the Habs have been through the first two months of the season, there are a lot of signs that suggest that they’ll begin to fade out of the playoff picture. Montreal has a -13 goal differential (and -6 goal difference at 5-on-5), ranks 25th in expected goal rate and sits 28th in high-danger scoring chance share.
Those numbers do tell you that the Habs struggle to push play in the right direction, but their roster isn’t built to be a possession powerhouse. The Canadiens are built to be a clinical team that relies on their playmakers to make the most of the moments that they create. So far those players have delivered.
And it’s not like the Senators are a dominant 5-on-5 team, either. Ottawa’s 52.7% expected goals rate and 52.6% high-danger chance share are more than respectable, but those aren’t elite marks by any stretch. Plus, the Senators have struggled defensively for most of the season so they need to tilt the ice to help provide some breathing room for a leaky blueline.
The Ottawa Senators finally seem to be heading in the right direction after a very slow start, but their current 6-3-1 stretch and a two-game winning streak has provided shrewd bettors with a good sell-high opportunity on the Sens.
Canadiens vs. Senators (7:00 p.m. ET) pick: Montreal Canadiens +160 (BetMGM)