Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Bengals at Buccaneers predictions and picks for their NFL Week 15 showdown, which is live Sunday on CBS at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Steaming toward a season-ending showdown for the AFC North crown, the Bengals (9-4) are thriving behind Joe Burrow. Stagnant offensively, the Buccaneers (6-7) have not hit 23 points scored in nine straight games.
Bengals vs. Buccaneers picks
- Bengals to cover -3.5, -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
- Under 44 total points, -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
- Tom Brady over 40.5 pass attempts, -123 at Caesars Sportsbook
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Bengals vs. Buccaneers predictions and analysis
While Burrow did just enough last week to keep the Bengals’ winning streak intact, it was the defense that was the star of the show in a win against the Browns. The Buccaneers gave up 35 points against a rookie QB last week, the most the defense has allowed since Week 4.
Bengals cover -3.5
When the season started, the Bengals looked nothing like the team that made a charge to last season’s Super Bowl, falling to 2-3 after a loss at Baltimore. Since then, a renewed commitment on the offensive end has given Cincinnati seven wins in the last eight games.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon is back after missing two games because of a concussion and had 96 yards against the Browns. Burrow wasn’t at his best Sunday but was without WRs Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, who left with injuries. Ja’Marr Chase carried the wideout load.
The Bucs were barely able to score against the 49ers’ top defense but return home where they are on a three-game winning streak. There is little momentum after Brady threw two interceptions, and his only TD pass was deflected into the hands of Russell Gage.
Bengals vs. Buccaneers pick: Bengals to cover -3.5, -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
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Under 44 total points
Behind Burrow, the Bengals have the fourth-best passing offense in the NFL with 268.1 yards per game, although the Browns showed Sunday the air attack can be slowed. Burrow had 239 yards passing and one interception at home against Cleveland.
The Buccaneers offer an even better defense than the Browns can deliver and are sixth-best against the pass at 195.3 yards. The Browns are 16th in passing defense at 215.8 yards. The Bucs are ninth in scoring defense (19.5 points), and the Bengals are 11th (20.4).
There is no shame in struggling on offense against the dominating San Francisco defense, but the Bucs’ issues with scoring points haven’t been limited to NFL’s best. Tampa Bay scores just 17.2 points per game, the fifth worst in the NFL and a shadow of their 29.0 points last season.
Bengals vs. Buccaneers pick: Under 44 total points, -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
Tom Brady over 40.5 pass attempts
Bucs quarterback Tom Brady has carried a heavy workload, mostly due to Tampa Bay’s brutal rushing attack that gains a league-worst 72.9 yards per game. At 45, perhaps Brady is showing his age, or perhaps he has been impressive under some predictable circumstances.
The Bucs’ running game isn’t going anywhere so keying on Brady is first and foremost for opposing defenses. And yet the veteran still has averaged 307.3 yards passing per game in the team’s seven home contests. He has thrown 11 TDs with just two interceptions at home.
The Bengals’ rush defense is slightly better than its pass defense, although both are merely middle of the pack in the NFL. Cincinnati gives up an average of 220.1 passing yards per game, 20th in the NFL. Brady has at least 40 pass attempts in 10 of his last 11 games.
Bengals vs. Buccaneers pick: Tom Brady over 40.5 pass attempts, -123 at Caesars Sportsbook
Bengals vs. Buccaneers odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total Points 44.0 |
| Bengals | (-3.5) -110 | -195 | Over -110 |
| Buccaneers | (+3.5) -110 | +162 | Under -110 |