NFL Week 18 early predictions, picks: Which teams are motivated to win?

The most challenging week of the entire NFL season to bet is Week 18, when motivation and information are at their fuzziest.

Nearly half the league has already been eliminated from playoff contention, while another select few teams have already clinched their playoff seeding and are prime candidates to rest their starters.

Cutting through all that noise opens up strong value opportunities – especially if you can get ahead of the inevitable rush of money later in the week when the everyday bettor catches up to these teams’ motivations.

Here are the betting odds for Week 18 at BetMGM and a few bets worth making earlier than later:

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NFL Week 18 betting odds, point spreads (via BetMGM)

Chiefs (-7.5) @ Raiders

Titans @ Jaguars (-6.5)

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-4)

Vikings (-4) @ Bears

Texans @ Colts (-2.5)

Jets @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Panthers @ Saints (-3.5)

Browns @ Steelers (-3)

Ravens @ Bengals (N/A)

Patriots @ Bills (N/A)

Chargers (-3) @ Broncos

Giants @ Eagles (-14)

Cardinals @ 49ers (-14)

Rams @ Seahawks (-6.5)

Cowboys (-5.5) @ Commanders

Lions @ Packers (-4.5)

Week 18 NFL early predictions and picks

Falcons -4 vs. Buccaneers

Sometimes the sports betting market goes too far when pricing a team that may not play its starters in the finale. This line isn’t going far enough.

The Buccaneers simply have nothing to play for in Week 18 – they’re already locked into the No. 4 seed – and while coach Todd Bowles insists that he’ll play his starters on Sunday, he admitted that he could pull those starters in the second half. That seems highly likely, considering how injury-ravaged this team has been all year at key positions.

Even at full strength, I’m not sure the Bucs deserve much more respect here with how lifeless they’ve looked on both sides of the ball. With their backups likely to see significant time here, I’m all in on the Falcons pulling away late to earn their fourth 7-win season in five years.

Steelers -3 vs. Browns

This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, no matter how you slice it, and I’d be surprised if it lasts all the way until kickoff.

Let’s set aside motivation for a second: why aren’t the Steelers bigger favorites here? They’ve won five of their last six games after Sunday night’s thrilling 16-13 win over the Ravens when Kenny Pickett showed flashes of brilliance on a late game-winning drive. Pittsburgh’s defense also showed out, holding its opponent to 17 or fewer points for the sixth straight week.

Then consider that the Steelers’ playoff hopes rest on a win here (plus some help), as does Mike Tomlin’s historic streak of finishing at .500 or better. The Browns, meanwhile, have been eliminated for weeks amid an embarrassing and heavily scrutinized campaign. This is an easy bet for me and shouldn’t last at this price much longer.

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Cowboys -5.5 @ Commanders

This is a big number to lay on the road, but the Cowboys have every reason to lay waste to their division rivals in a game that could vault Dallas to the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Motivation isn’t the only factor here, as the matchup skews heavily in the Cowboys’ favor. They beat the Commanders by 15 points in Week 4, when Carson Wentz was still clinging to his starting job. He effectively lost it last week amid a messy three-INT performance, leaving coach Ron Rivera to shake up his QB spot once again in a game with zero postseason implications for his side.

That leaves a strong possibility that rookie Sam Howell could make his first-ever start, given that Washington has nothing to gain from winning here and has seemingly seen all it needs from Wentz and benched starter Taylor Heinicke. If Howell gets the nod against this ferocious Dallas defense, this line could move in a hurry in what feels like a blowout waiting to happen.