On paper, it looks like Rafa Nadal’s victory over Jack Draper was pretty straightforward. Nadal won the match, 3-1, and ran away from the Englishman in sets four and five, but the path the Spanish legend took to that victory was not all that straightforward.
Nadal does deserve some credit for taking care of Draper — who was one of the toughest Round 1 opponents Rafa could have drawn — but it should also be acknowledged that Draper did not look fit and was dealing with cramping in the business end of the contest.
Nadal now sets his sights on American Mackenzie McDonald in Round 2 on Tuesday night.
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Rafa Nadal vs. Mackenzie McDonald prediction: Over 30.5 games
It does seem like Nadal will need to grow into this tournament if he’s going to contend for a title. Rafa has dealt with more than a few significant injuries over the past few seasons and was clearly not at the height of his powers down the stretch last year.
Nadal’s rhythm and confidence looked off against Draper, which led to an eye-opening 46 unforced errors from the all-time great. Rafa did look great out of the gates in a terrific first set, but Draper was able to storm back to take the second before struggling with cramps.
You can only beat who is put in front of you, but it’s hard to take much confidence from that match if you’re a Nadal fan or backer.
Nadal is still a sizable favorite in his next match, he’s currently sitting at -1100 at the time of writing, but McDonald has the potential to ask some big questions of the 22-time Grand Slam winner, especially if he serves the way he did against Brandon Nakashima.
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The win over Nakashima is just one of a recent stretch of encouraging results in 2023 for the native of Piedmont, Calif. Although he had lost two of his last three matches leading into Melbourne, McDonald looked full value in a win over Dan Evans and played very well in a three-set loss to Mikael Ymer.
If McDonald carries that form into Round 2, he’ll be able to hang around with Nadal, who seems to be searching for answers more than anything in the early rounds.
The plan for Nadal right now is to survive, advance and hope that he can grow into the tournament — and it’s hard to doubt that he can accomplish that given his track record — but it also means we could see a rather turbulent ride for the Spaniard over the next few matches.
The moneyline is a tempting price on McDonald here, but the logical bet seems to be on the match to go over 30.5 games as it would not be all that shocking to see the American nip a set, or at the very least get to a tiebreaker or two, in this match.