With the NCAA Tournament bracket set, now comes the analysis of every team’s resume and potential to wreak havoc in March Madness.
But not every path is built the same way.
One of the most interesting ways to sort out the contenders and pretenders is KenPom’s “luck” rating, which measures the deviation between a college basketball team’s actual winning percentage and what you’d expect based on its overall profile.
That’s obviously a helpful metric when determining which teams in the bracket aren’t being properly valued by the committee – and which ones might be worth a bet in the first round.
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So, with that said, here’s a look at the five luckiest (and unluckiest) teams in the 2023 NCAA Tournament and a look at their first-round matchup, with odds courtesy of FanDuel:
Luckiest teams
UNC Asheville
- 1st-round opponent: UCLA (-18.5)
UNC Asheville isn’t just the luckiest team in the NCAA Tournament; it’s been the luckiest team in the entire country during the 2022-23 season.
The Bulldogs own the nation’s sixth-longest win streak, but just three of those nine wins have come by double digits.
This team’s 8-2 record in games decided by four points or less suggests a rude awakening coming in its first-round matchup with UCLA.
Kennesaw State
- 1st-round opponent: Xavier (-12.5)
If you thought UNC-Asheville was fortunate to reach this point, consider the case of Kennesaw State, which won two of its three conference tournament games by exactly one point to secure its first NCAA Tournament bid in school history.
That’s been the theme of this season for the Owls, who were 10-3 in games decided by four points or less and 2-0 in overtime affairs.
That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of this group considering its paltry level of competition.
Missouri
- 1st-round opponent: Utah State (-1.5)
It’s only fitting to see the Tigers on this list after they closed the season with a run of narrow wins before getting overwhelmed in the SEC Tournament semifinal.
Four of Missouri’s last six wins have come by five or fewer points, and they boast a perfect 8-0 record in games decided by that margin.
That comes in sharp contrast to their nine losses, which have come by an average of 16.2 points.
Kansas
- 1st-round opponent: Howard (+21.5)
It’s not like the Jayhawks don’t deserve a No. 1 seed after the way they ran through the Big 12 this season, but they were fortunate to win as many games as they did.
Kansas posted an incredible 11-2 record in games decided by six or fewer points, while its last three losses all came by at least 15 points.
Some of that is late-game experience, but there’s a whole lot of good fortune baked into the Jayhawks’ seeding, too.
Oral Roberts
- 1st-round opponent: Duke (-7.5)
The Golden Eagles own the nation’s longest winning streak with 17 straight victories entering the tournament – but they haven’t all been pretty.
Seven of those 17 wins came by single digits, and Oral Roberts survived three separate 3-point wins earlier in the season, too.
Still, this team’s gaudy scoring margin and elite offensive efficiency suggest that luck may not have been as big of a factor as this metric suggests.
Unluckiest teams
Creighton
- 1st-round opponent: NC State (+5.5)
It’s hard to call a team unlucky that loses by 22 points in its final game, but Creighton has been on the wrong side of close games all year long.
Greg McDermott’s group posted a 2-5 record in games decided by three points or less – which includes two-point losses to No. 2 seeds Arizona and Marquette and narrow losses to Texas, Xavier and Providence.
That’s a murderer’s row of elite teams that struggled to beat Creighton, which bodes well for its overall resume.
Arkansas
- 1st-round opponent: Illinois (+2.5)
Can this team catch a break?
Arkansas finished with a losing record in conference play (9-11) despite outscoring SEC opponents by 1.3 points across the entire season.
The Razorbacks also lost five games by exactly three points, and seven of their last eight losses came by single digits.
If this team can benefit from some late-game breaks, it has the ingredients to make a run in this tournament.
Tennessee
- 1st-round opponent: Louisiana Lafayette (+9.5)
All year long, the advanced metrics have liked Tennessee far more than you’d think based on its overall record (23-10).
And it’s easy to see why.
Seven of those 10 losses came by single digits, including one-point defeats to Vanderbilt and Missouri in mid-February.
That said, this team’s inability to consistently hit shots might be a bigger reason for that than just bad luck.
Connecticut
- 1st-round opponent: Iona (+11)
It’s not hard to cry bad luck when you lose by two points in your final game.
It’s easier yet when that’s the trend and not the exception.
Each of the Huskies’ last four losses have come by three points or fewer, while their 14 conference wins have come by an average of 14.1 points.
Even after a dominant regular season, this team is even more dangerous than its resume suggests.
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West Virginia
- 1st-round opponent: Maryland (+2.5)
It’s easy to overlook this team after it posted a 19-14 record and flamed out in the Big 12 Tournament, but the Mountaineers are clearly better than that.
While Kansas beat this team by 17 points in the conference tournament, it won by just two points a couple weeks earlier – one of West Virginia’s eight losses by eight or fewer points in Big 12 play.
Don’t be surprised if the Mountaineers look better when not matched up against such daunting competition.
