For virtually the entire season, Houston has been the favorite to cut down the nets in its own backyard after making deep runs in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments.
Then came the ill-timed injury to leading scorer Marcus Sasser (17.1 PPG), which complicates the Cougars’ path to the title game – and simultaneously leaves the door wide open for one of the other 16 teams in the Midwest Region to make a surprise run at the Final Four.
Here are the odds to win the Midwest Region, per FanDuel, and how we’re betting the region overall:
March Madness 2023: Midwest region preview
(via FanDuel)
| Team (seed) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Houston (1) | +120 |
| Texas (2) | +450 |
| Xavier (3) | +900 |
| Texas A&M (7) | +1000 |
| Indiana (4) | +1200 |
| Miami (5) | +1600 |
| Iowa State (6) | +2100 |
| Penn State (10) | +2600 |
| Iowa (8) | +2600 |
| Auburn (9) | +3700 |
| Mississippi State (11) | +6500 |
| Drake (12) | +7000 |
| Pittsburgh (11) | +9000 |
| Kent State (13) | +10000 |
| Colgate (15) | +10000 |
| Northern Kentucky (16) | +10000 |
| Kennesaw State (14) | +10000 |
No. 1 Seed: Houston (+120)
Houston enters the NCAA Tournament as the outright favorite to win it all (+500), but that largely hinges on Sasser’s status after he missed the team’s loss to Memphis in the AAC Tournament final.
The Cougars looked lost in that game without their go-to star, and they couldn’t keep pace with Alabama earlier this year in a rare down game for Sasser (9 points, 2-for-11).
If he isn’t at full strength over the next three weeks, just how far can this team really go?
Sleeper: No. 10 Penn State (+2600)
There are so many compelling teams to choose from in this region, which could legitimately see five or six double-digit seeds advance to the second round.
But I keep coming back to Penn State, which is built to do damage in March.
Star guard Jalen Pickett (17.9 PPG, 6.7 AST) is the engine for the only offense in the country ranked in the top 10 in 3-point percentage (38.5%) and 3-point rate (47.4%).
The Nittany Lions also boast the most experienced lineup in the country with a top-10 turnover rate (13.7%) and a steady rotation of versatile shooters and playmakers.
Micah Shrewsberry’s team got a brutal draw with Texas A&M in the first round and Texas looming in the second round, but Penn State’s elite shooting is the ultimate equalizer.
If those 3-point shots are falling, there might not be a ceiling for this group.
Team to Avoid: No. 6 Iowa State (+2100)
Few teams enter the tournament with a more concerning trajectory than Iowa State, which lost 11 of its final 17 games and five of its last seven but somehow snagged a top-six seed, anyway.
I’m simply not buying what the Cyclones are selling: their defense forces turnovers at the nation’s second-highest rate (25.1%), but they’ve allowed 10.2 triples per game over the last three weeks and have struggled to score without Caleb Grill (9.5 PPG), who left the program in early March.
If Pittsburgh can survive Mississippi State on Tuesday, the Panthers have the shooting and veteran guard play to subvert Iowa State’s recipe for success.
Regardless of who they face in the first round, I’d be shocked if the Cyclones make it past the Sweet 16, if that.
1st-Round Upset: No. 12 Drake (+115) over No. 5 Miami
Obviously, we like Penn State and Pittsburgh as potential opening-round spoilers.
But we’ve also got our eyes on Drake to do its part as a pesky No. 12 seed.
The Bulldogs are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 13 of 14 games and demolishing Bradley in the MVC final in a rematch of that lone loss.
Leading scorer Tucker DeVries (19 PPG) has legitimate NBA aspirations and is the type of multi-level scorer than can give Miami’s defense trouble – especially if leading rebounder and shot-blocker Norchad Omier is sidelined by that ankle injury he suffered in the ACC tourney.
Best 1st-Round Matchup: No. 4 Indiana (-4.5) vs. No. 13 Kent State
Iowa vs. Auburn is the closest matchup on paper in the Midwest Region, but this game could have the biggest impact on the region at large.
If Indiana plays like the team that beat Purdue twice and looked like a Final Four contender just a month ago, it could find itself on a collision course with Texas in the Elite Eight.
But we’ve seen the Hoosiers mess around, too, and Kent State has proven itself against elite competition – nearly knocking off Houston and Gonzaga earlier this season – and has the defensive chops to make a run beyond the first weekend.
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Midwest Region Winner: No. 2 Texas (+450)
I’ve already alluded to it a few times, so let’s cut to the chase: despite not being favored this is Texas’ region to lose.
The Longhorns survived a coaching change and one of the toughest schedules in the country with a 26-8 record and top-20 efficiency on both ends of the court – joining Houston and Connecticut as the only teams with the type of balance that we’ve seen from just about every title winner over the last two decades.
With Sasser’s health such an open question mark for Houston, Texas feels like the team in this region with the highest floor and maybe even the highest ceiling, too.
No one is truly safe with so many potential landmines littering the Midwest, but the Longhorns are as sure of a bet as any in this tournament.
