It’s been a little feast or famine the last two Mondays, as we’ve gone 4-for-4 and 0-for-4 in the selections.
Given the nature of the payouts (using Flex Play or Power Play), it’s actually better to be a little more boom or bust on a nightly basis.
If you are picking 50% of your entries correctly on a nightly basis, you won’t be cashing with your pick ‘em card.
There are seven games on the schedule tonight, so we’ll look to get back on track.
NBA PrizePicks best bets and predictions
Desmond Bane more than 5.0 assists
Ja Morant is still away from the team, which means more play-making duties have fallen to Bane.
Over the last four games (all without Morant), Bane has dished out eight, six, five, and six assists.
On the season, he has averaged 6.17 assists per 36 minutes with Morant off the floor, so we are getting some value with the 5.0 assists projection.
He should play minutes in the mid-30s tonight against the Mavericks, who have picked up their pace of play since acquiring Kyrie Irving and who are ranked 23rd in defensive rating this season.
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Killian Hayes more than 13.5 points
The Pistons have the perfect combination of being short-handed (no Bojan Bogdanovic, Cade Cunningham, Alec Burks, Jaden Ivey, or Marvin Bagley) and drawing an elite matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked eighth in pace and 26th in defensive rating.
Hayes has only averaged 9.5 points per game this season, but that’s the wrong number to look at.
On a per-minute basis, he has averaged 0.36 points.
In 205 minutes with those five players listed above off the floor this season, Hayes has had a 24% usage rate.
He should see an uptick in minutes and usage tonight in a favorable matchup against the Pacers.
Deandre Ayton less than 11.5 rebounds
Ayton has been crashing the boards hard recently, but asking him to grab more than 11.5 is a tall task.
In fact, he’s recorded 11 or fewer rebounds in eight of his last 11 games.
He is only averaging 10.2 rebounds per game this season, so there’s some value in the less than side of this projection.
The matchup also sets up poorly for Ayton, as the Warriors are a jump-shooting team.
The Warriors attempt 43.4 3-pointers per game, which is the highest mark in the NBA.
This tends to lead to longer rebounds rather than ones that come off right near the rim.
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Bam Adebayo less than 39.5 fantasy score
Many will point to the acquisition of Kevin Love as the reason for Adebayo’s slump, but he’s actually been more productive on a per-minute basis playing alongside Love.
If you pull up the game log for Adebayo, he’s scored less than 39.5 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games.
A matchup against the Jazz is certainly an enticing one, but the game does have a large spread (7.5 points).
If the game turns into a rout, that’s obviously good for this selection.
The icing on the cake is that we have him projected for 38.1 fantasy points over at RotoGrinders.
Have a great Monday everyone!
You can follow Derek Farnsworth on Twitter @RG_Notorious