Chelsea not only is sitting in 11th-place in the Premier League, but also it’s on its third manager of the campaign and has spent over a half-billion dollars on transfers since the summer.
It has been chaos, but the Blues are just one of two EPL teams to reach the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League.
Compared to Chelsea, Real Madrid is a picture of stability.
Los Blancos won’t win La Liga this year, but they have won the Champions League four times in the last seven seasons and have won their domestic league two of the past three campaigns.
It’s going to be hard to find anybody that feels confident the Blues can pull the upset against one of the best tournament teams in the world.
Chelsea’s underlying metrics suggest that they are a much better team than the actual results show.
Chelsea vs. Real Madrid pick
(3 p.m. Eastern)
Chelsea is just 4-6-6 (W-D-L) with a -2 goal difference (12 GF, 14 GA) since the World Cup, but its expected goals differential is +9.7.
Bad luck and poor finishing have held this team back more than pedestrian play.
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It takes some gusto to back a team like Chelsea against Real Madrid, but the best time to get in on a team or player is when the market is at its lowest.
Chelsea vs. Real Madrid prediction
Chelsea (+400, BetMGM)