For the second straight year and third time in four seasons, the Celtics and Heat will face off in the Eastern Conference Finals with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.
Boston won this series last year and is the heavy favorite to advance this time around.
They are also a massive favorite to score a victory in Wednesday’s series opener.
However, the Heat have been the ultimate spoilers this postseason after two consecutive upsets to return to this stage.
Here’s how we’re betting Wednesday’s contest, which tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Celtics vs. Heat odds
(via BetMGM)
- Celtics -8.5 (-105), moneyline -350
- Heat +8.5 (-115), moneyline +280
- O/U 210.5 (over -115)
Celtics vs. Heat prediction and analysis
(8:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
On paper, this series and Game 1 matchup shouldn’t be all that close.
The Celtics boasted the NBA’s best net rating (+6.7) in the regular season and have looked invincible at times in these playoffs, while the Heat snuck into the postseason field after getting outscored through 82 games.
Yet this game isn’t played on paper.
And as we’ve seen in recent years, that’s a bad sign for Boston.
It’s easy to buy into the Celtics as an unstoppable force after the way they closed the second round, rallying back in Game 6 before running away with a 24-point win in Game 7 to shut the door on the 76ers’ season.
It was awfully similar to what we saw in last year’s second-round series with the Bucks, and subsequent Eastern Conference Finals win over the Heat.
Jayson Tatum was at the center of it all and has played the best basketball of his career over the last week.
His latest heroics followed a similar script to last season’s run through the Eastern Conference.
When Boston’s season was on the brink, Tatum rose to the occasion, and the Celtics transformed into a well-oiled machine with virtually no way to stop them.
That makes it all the more confounding how Boston has played in other spots when the stakes are lower and the sense of urgency is gone.
We’ve seen that story play out in a similarly predictable fashion, too.
The Celtics lost Game 1 to the Bucks and Heat during last year’s run – both coming by double digits – and they inexplicably dropped the series opener to Philadelphia in this year’s second round.
Whether that’s the product of a young roster or being led by a first-year head coach in both seasons, it’s clearly an issue for this team.
And that type of effort won’t fly against the Heat, who have become experts at drawing first blood.
Entering this series, Miami has won Game 1 in eight of its last 10 playoff matchups, including five straight dating back to last season.
That includes last year’s conference finals against the Celtics and outright wins this year against the Bucks (-9) and Knicks (-4), who lost by a combined 20 points despite being favored at home.
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That isn’t to say the Heat will score another outright upset here, but Miami has played like a legitimate force behind postseason hero Jimmy Butler, whose 31.1 points per game in these playoffs are the most by anyone still playing.
His defense on Jalen Brunson was key to thwarting the Knicks in Round 2, and he’ll undoubtedly play a role in slowing Tatum on Wednesday, too.
In the end, this line is simply too big for a matchup between two teams that know each other well and have shown almost exact opposite levels of intensity to start recent playoff series.
Boston is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven series openers, and I’d be surprised if it runs away with an easy victory here.
Celtics vs. Heat pick
- Heat +8.5 (-115 BetMGM)