The National Hockey League Entry Draft is one of the best bang-for-buck betting events on the sporting calendar.
Since it flies under the radar compared to the NFL and NBA, bettors stand a pretty decent chance of getting ahead of line movement at the NHL Draft even on the day of the show.
And this year’s NHL Draft has more potential for chaos than any in recent memory.
While Connor Bedard is a certainty to go No. 1 overall to the Chicago Blackhawks, there’s a lot of rumors and rumblings about how the next four picks will shake out.
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Here’s where we stand now:
All year long there has been a consensus “Big 5” in the 2023 NHL Draft Class: Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson, Will Smith and Matvei Michkov.
After those five, things begin to taper off, although it is considered to be a very deep prospect pool.
It has long been assumed/accepted that Fantilli, a center from the University of Michigan, will go No. 2 overall to the Anaheim Ducks.
That was the case even before the Ducks lost the lottery and fell from first to second in the pecking order.
Fantilli would be a fine No. 1 overall pick in plenty of seasons, but he just happens to be in the same class as the biggest draft prospect since Connor McDavid.
But there is a wrench in the system and his name is Matvei Michkov.
Depending on who you ask, Michkov is either a can’t-miss prospect from Russia or an extreme risk that is not worth taking in the top-5 for a number of reasons, ranging from geopolitical issues in his home country to the fact that he’s under contract in the KHL for three more years.
That means that the team selecting Michkov needs to be OK with waiting until the 2026-27 before he comes over the pond.
A lot of general managers don’t have that luxury.
Regardless of the turmoil, Michkov is still considered by plenty of scouts and draft analysts to be the second-best player in this class by a decent margin.
That’s no shot at Fantilli, but more of a comment on the potential of the 18-year-old from Perm, Russia.
A prospect like Michkov, one who has all-world potential but complicated baggage, means that the top of the 2023 NHL Draft can go in a lot of directions.
And that makes for great betting.
NHL Draft odds
No. 2 overall pick odds (BetMGM):
- Adam Fantilli -550
- Leo Carlsson +400
- Matvei Michkov +2000
Fantilli is rightfully a massive favorite to go to the Anaheim Ducks in this spot, but the Michkov factor looms large here and would scare me off going near that price on the Michigan Wolverine.
Anaheim, San Jose and Montreal are the three teams in the top-5 that can afford to take a swing on the Russian and not have to worry about being patient with him because they’re not going to be contenders for a few more seasons.
While admitting that the likeliest pick is clearly Fantilli, I don’t think playing Michkov at +2000 is a bad bet and will dabble with it.
The Bet: Matvei Michkov +2000
No. 3 overall pick odds (BetMGM):
- Leo Carlsson -300
- Will Smith +250
- Adam Fantilli +650
- Matvei Michkov +1800
The Columbus Blue Jackets have already been aggressive this summer and general manager Jarmo Kekalainen is on thin ice, so it would be surprising to see them make a risky selection here.
If the Ducks go with Fantilli, the pick is likely to be Leo Carlsson but there are some mock drafts out there that have the Jackets selecting Will Smith, a center committed to Boston College, ahead of Carlsson.
If the Ducks go with anyone other than Fantilli, Columbus will take him here.
The Bet: Pass
No. 4 overall pick odds (bet365):
- Will Smith -180
- Leo Carlsson +260
- Matvei Michkov +400
- David Reinbacher +700
There’s nothing really doing here from a betting standpoint.
If it’s chalk, the San Jose Sharks will be choosing between Will Smith, Michkov or David Reinbacher, who is the consensus best defenseman in the pool.
If there’s a surprise, say Michkov is off the board by this pick, than San Jose will be choosing between Smith and Carlsson.
None of the prices are long enough to be interesting, however.
The Bet: Pass
No. 5 overall pick (bet365):
- Ryan Leonard +160
- David Reinbacher +210
- Matvei Michkov +275
- Will Smith +450
- Dalibor Dvorsky +850
- Zach Benson +1600
- Leo Carlsson +4000
The first pick without an odds-on favorite, the Montreal Canadiens could go in a million different directions at No. 5, so it’s no surprise that this is my favorite spot in the top-5 to take a long shot bet.
In fact, my pick here is my favorite bet for the entire draft.
I think there’s a very real possibility that Leo Carlsson is still on the board at No. 5.
Carlsson may be the favorite to go third, but there’s a couple of realistic scenarios that would see the Swede drop past Columbus.
The first is that Michkov goes second, Fantilli goes third and the Sharks choose Smith over Carlsson, which could certainly be the case.
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San Jose general manager Mike Grier is a Boston guy and Smith is the favorite to go fourth, so he’ll be very familiar with the player and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him go with the North American.
It’s not like Carlsson is considered to be in a different tier as a prospect compared to Smith.
The other scenario is that Fantilli goes second, Smith goes third and Michkov goes fourth.
As noted above, the Sharks are a team that can afford to be patient with Michkov, so if it’s a choice between him and Carlsson, there’s a real possibility that they go with Michkov.
All you need for this bet to have serious legs is one team to go off-script ahead of Montreal.
The likelihood of that happening is 50/50 at worst and that means there’s a realistic chance that Carlsson is the one that falls to this spot.
And there is almost no chance that the Habs pass on Carlsson if he is there for them at this spot.
The Bet: Leo Carlsson +4000
