The Jets find themselves in a familiar spot, on prime time once again, just six days removed from a loss against the Chargers, when the Jets were unable to score a touchdown and fumbled three times.
Looking to bounce back, Gang Green hit the road out west to take on the Raiders on Sunday night.
The line sits around a pick ’em right now, with a total at 36.5. For what it’s worth, prime-time Unders have hit at a 77 percent rate this season.
Rather than focusing on the total or beating down on the Jets even more, let’s talk about the one positive.
The Jets made it a point to get the ball in Breece Hall’s hands.
Though he had no blocking on the offensive line nor was able to break an explosive play in the passing game like he did against the Giants, he did log 20 touches.
Hall logged his third straight week of 60 percent of snaps, with the Jets finally moving on from Dalvin Cook and realizing it was a mistake of a signing.
Though the Jets’ run blocking has been below average to say the least, Hall entered last week third in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Though I am worried about backing Hall’s Over on rush yards (63.5) despite the Raiders being a below-average rush defense — they rank 29th in DVOA against the run — I do think Hall’s receiving yards total is too low.
Over the past three weeks, we have seen Hall targeted four-plus times.
He racked up 76 receiving yards against the Giants and 54 the week before versus the Eagles.
His receiving yards prop sits at 18.5 at BetMGM.
Using Hall in the receiving game is another way to target his explosiveness without relying on the offensive line to block.
Not only is Billy Turner now out, but Duane Brown won’t be activated off the IR. That leaves Gang Green significantly shorthanded once again.
The Raiders should be able to get consistent pressure on Zach Wilson, which is a plus for Hall as a safety-valve receiver. Wilson has one of the lowest aDOTs — average depth of target — among all quarterbacks, and the Raiders are 23rd in DVOA on passes to running backs. It’s a perfect recipe for success.
The past four running backs to face Vegas all went for 20-plus receiving yards.
That list includes Saquon Barkley (23 yards), Jahmyr Gibbs (37), D’Onta Foreman (31) and Rhamondre Stevenson (24).
I would expect this number to creep closer to that 20-21 range before the opening kick on Sunday.
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It was one of the most-bet props Monday night — for good reason — and despite not cashing, Hall did catch all four targets.
He should see a similar workload once again in Vegas, and the expected game script should keep Hall on the field for the majority of drives.
The Jets know they have to get the ball in their best weapons’ hands, and that means manufacturing plays however they can for Hall.
In what’s shaping up as a must-win for the Jets to keep their playoff hopes alive, back Hall to make an impact in the passing game.
This number is just too low.