The undefeated ACC Champion Florida State Seminoles enter Saturday’s Orange Bowl surrounded by controversy.
The Seminoles were left out of the College Football Playoff – primarily because of Jordan Travis’ injury – and are now suing the ACC to leave the conference, likely so this doesn’t happen again.
I’m unsure if they can carry all that baggage off the bus and battle Georgia in their bowl game.
The Bulldogs are disappointed after losing the SEC Championship and their College Football Playoff bid, but they should be more focused than their opponents.
Plus, Georgia has far fewer starters that opted out.
Therefore, I’m laying the three touchdowns with the ‘Dawgs in Saturday’s Orange Bowl.
Florida State vs Georgia Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Florida State | +19.5 (-110) | +725 | o44.5 (-110) |
| Georgia | -19.5 (-110) | -1200 | u44.5 (-110) |
(Via BetMGM)
Florida State vs. Georgia Prediction
No bowl-bound team is entirely immune to portal and opt-out activity.
The Bulldogs lost four key players – tight end Brock Bowers, offensive lineman Tate Ratledge, defensive lineman Nazir Stackhouse and cornerback Kamari Lassiter – and several backups.
However, Georgia’s list of unavailable Orange Bowl participants pales compared to Florida State’s.
In addition to Travis’ injury, backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker is in the portal, meaning third-string quarterback Brock Glenn will start on Saturday – Glenn is 10-for-25 passing this season for 3.6 yards per attempt.
On top of that, the following Seminole starters opted out:
- Wide receiver Johnny Wilson
- Wide receiver Keon Coleman
- Tight end Jaheim Bell
- Running back Trey Benson
- Defensive end Jared Verse
- Defensive tackle Fabien Lovett
- Safety Akeem Dent
- Cornerback Renardo Green
For context, Wilson and Coleman combined for almost 1,00 receiving yards this year, while Benson rushed for almost 1,000 and Verse is an All-ACC defender.
The program is in turmoil, and half the roster decided playing in the Orange Bowl wasn’t worth the trouble.
The Seminoles offense fell off a cliff once Travis went down, and I don’t expect Glenn to play any better than Rodemaker without his top two wideouts and lead running back.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs’ offense, which finished the regular season fourth in EPA per Play, should roll past a shorthanded Seminoles defense behind starting quarterback Carson Beck, who is playing in the Orange Bowl and will be the QB1 in Athens next year.
In my eyes, Beck was among the nation’s most improved players this season.
He threw for 300-plus yards in six games, finishing the year with 3,700 yards, 22 scores, and only six interceptions.
He snuck up to third among qualified FBS quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s quarterback grades and sixth in EPA per Pass Attempt.
The kid can rip it, especially past the sticks.
Yes, Beck won’t have Bowers, but he played well when Bowers went down with an injury, consistently hitting Ladd McConckey and Dominic Lovett for explosives.
In two games without Bowers (against Florida and Missouri), Beck completed 40 of his 60 passing attempts (66.7%) for 569 yards at 9.5 yards per attempt, adding four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Florida State’s pass defense is elite, but I expect a significant dropoff without two starting defensive linemen and three starting defensive backs.
Ultimately, I think Beck can exploit a shorthanded Seminoles defense, and I don’t think Florida State’s severely shorthanded offense will generate anything.
I’m betting the ‘Dawgs blow ‘em out in the Orange Bowl.
Florida State vs. Georgia pick
Georgia -19.5 (-110) | Play to -20.5 (-110)