Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are a rare underdog during the divisional round against the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday.
If the line stays at +2.5 Chiefs, it will be just the 11th time during Mahomes’ 112 career games that Kansas City wasn’t favored heading into the contest.
But if Mahomes’ track record is any indication, the Chiefs shouldn’t be scared when they head to Highmark Stadium this weekend.
The Chiefs are an excellent 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog when Mahomes is behind center.
Perhaps even more impressive, the Chiefs are 7-3 straight up as underdogs when they’re led by their franchise quarterback.
Kansas City was an underdog just once this season — during Week 18 against the Chargers when the team sat Mahomes and most of their key starters.
With Mahomes on the field, the Chiefs were previously underdogs in last year’s Super Bowl when, of course, Kansas City upset the Philadelphia Eagles, 38-35.
But Mahomes’ only loss ATS as an underdog in his career happened to come against the Bills.
That game came during Week 6 in 2022, when Buffalo beat the Chiefs, 24-20, as 2.5-point favorites at Arrowhead Stadium.
Sunday’s game will also be the first playoff game on the road in Mahomes’ career.
For his career, Mahomes is 39-11 straight up and 28-20-2 in road/neutral games, according to Action Network.
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The Bills already beat the Chiefs once this season, coming out on top, 20-17, during Week 14 in Kansas City.
Buffalo comes into this game as the hotter team, having won their sixth straight game after taking care of the Steelers during the wild card round.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, limped into the postseason, going 5-5 over the last 10 games, although they beat the Miami Dolphins handily to secure their spot in the second round.