Trump edges Biden among New York Latinos as migrant crisis rages: poll

President Biden’s popularity has plummeted so precipitously in New York that he trails former President Donald Trump among Latino voters amid the unrelenting migrant crisis — though the Empire State would still vote blue in a 2024 matchup between the two, according to a new survey.

Trump leads Biden 42% to 39% among Hispanic voters with the remainder undecided, according to the Siena College Poll released Monday. 

As recently as November, the incumbent Democrat led his predecessor by 27 points in the traditionally left-leaning demographic.

“I would think it’s very concerning [for Biden]” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “It fits in with what we’re seeing nationally.”

Biden, 81, beat Trump, 77, by 23 percentage points in New York in 2020. This time, however, the president leads Trump by just nine points, 46% to 37%, which tracks with Biden trailing the 45th president in other battleground states.

When independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West are included, Biden and Trump’s vote share drops to 41% and 32%, respectively.

Biden has also bled support among New York’s black voters, who went for him at a more than 90% clip in November 2020.

Now, however, the Siena poll shows Biden leading Trump by just 30 percentage points (54% to 24%) among blacks, down from the 51-point spread (64% to 13%) the survey returned in November.

The president checks in with a favorability rating of just 43% among New Yorkers, the lowest measured by the Siena poll, with 53% having an unfavorable opinion of the commander-in-chief. Biden’s job approval rating of 44% is also a new low for the survey, with 56% disapproving.

“As has been the case in recent national polls, Biden has lost considerable support among key constituencies that propelled him to victory four years ago,” Greenberg said.

“While Biden’s falling poll numbers have not been dramatic month-to-month, they are dramatic if you look over the last year,” he added. “A year ago, Biden’s net favorability rating was +2, today 10 points underwater, and his net approval rating fell from +4 to -12, a net drop of 16 points.”

The border crisis remains a festering issue and New York voters are unhappy with how top Democratic elected officials are handling it — with most of their rage reserved for the man in the Oval Office.

The Siena poll found that 85% of respondents said the migrant issue is a serious problem, with 61% rating it very serious.

Biden, Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York City Mayor Eric Adams are all underwater with voters over their handling of the issue, with two-thirds disapproving of Biden’s response while only 28% approve.

Hochul and Adams fare little better, with 59% disapproving of the governor’s handling of the crisis (33% approve), and 54% not liking Hizzoner’s response (28% approve).

Notably, 89% of Latino New Yorkers rated the migrant crisis a serious problem, the highest proportion of any racial or ethnic group, with 65% saying it is very serious.

In other notable findings, more New York voters disapproved (45%) than approved (43%) of providing more economic and military aid to Israel as the Jewish state’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip enters its fourth month.

Half of New Yorkers support increased aid for Ukraine, but the margin in favor of that policy is smaller (10 percentage points) than in November (16 percentage points).

“Democrats support increased military and economic aid for Ukraine better than two-to-one; however,
Republicans oppose by a similar margin and independents are closely divided,” Greenberg said. “When it comes to Israel, the partisan divide disappears. Democrats narrowly oppose it, 47-43%, as do independents, 43-38%, while Republicans barely support Israeli aid, 46-44%.

“White voters support Israeli aid by 10 points and Ukrainian aid by 20 points, while black and Latino voters oppose both,” Greenberg added. “Younger voters also oppose aid to both countries, while older voters strongly support aid for both countries.”

The Siena College Poll surveyed 807 registered New York voters Jan. 14-17. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.