The Michigan State Spartans were the trendy preseason Big Ten championship, given their returning production, notably the elite backcourt duo of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin was picked closer to the middle of the pack by most college basketball preseason polls.
Instead, Michigan State has flailed this season, while the Badgers have soared to the top of the Big Ten, as they’re now 15-4 overall and 7-1 in league play.
Michigan State’s generating nothing from its frontcourt, hindering the quality of shots and forcing Walker to create inefficient peddling mid-range opportunities.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s still generating production from the frontcourt combination of Tyler Wahl and Steven Crawl in Greg Gard’s post-heavy scheme, opening up perimeter shots and driving lanes for St. John’s transfer AJ Storr to generate 15 points per game.
But I think now’s the time to sell Wisconsin and buy Michigan State.
The Badgers are seeing looming regression, while the Spartans are beginning to play better, working on a three-game win streak after downing Maryland on the road last Sunday.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin prediction
(8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
For all their faults, Sparty boasts a rock-solid interior defense.
Mady Sissoko is holding up in post-up sets (0.63 PPP allowed, 82nd percentile), and everyone protects the paint (24 paint points per game allowed, 98th percentile) against cutters (1.1 PPP allowed, 70th percentile) and hand-off sets (0.74 PPP allowed, 73rd percentile).
As a result, Michigan State ranks top 40 nationally in 2-point defense (45%).
That should play against an interior-based, post-heavy offense that heavily utilizes cutters. If you shut off Wahl and Crowl down low, the entire Wisconsin offense is thrown out of whack.
On the other end of the floor, Sparty is a guard-heavy offense that leverages Walker and Hoggard in ball screens to either score in the mid-range or dish to others coming around off-ball screens.
In theory, Wisconsin’s pack-line defense should excel against ball screens, but that hasn’t been the case, as the Badgers’ pick-and-roll defensive metrics are questionable at best (0.84 PPP allowed, 18th percentile).
Even better, Wisconsin has been atrocious against off-ball screens (1.14 PPP allowed, 24th percentile), so Walker/Hoggard should have open guys to dish to.
While the pack line should be good against ball screens, the scheme is always vulnerable to shooters that can pull up over the top – Wisco ranks 218th nationally in mid-range PPP allowed (0.79). Walker should get to any spot on the floor he wants, and he’ll make those shots from his favorite spots.
Also, Tom Izzo-led teams love to run the floor and push the ball in transition behind the guards. While Wisconsin viciously denies transition opportunities, the Badgers aren’t a good transition defense when opponents get the opportunity (1.08 PPP allowed, 25th percentile).
Big Ten home-court advantage is powerful, so the Badgers should be laying two possessions in this battle. But projections make Sparty a one-to-two-point road ‘dog, and I think they keep it close by leveraging an excellent schematic matchup.
Wisconsin is due for more conference losses, and I’m always willing to sell high on Big Ten teams – this conference is too brutal to roll through.
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The Badgers aren’t even playing that well. They’ve failed to cover in their past three games, including an outright road loss to Penn State as five-point favorites and a sketchy two-point win over cellar-dwelling Minnesota as 12-point favorites last time out.
Another loss is imminent, so give me the Spartans and the points.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin pick
Pick: Michigan State +2.5 (-102, FanDuel)