After 544 regular-season NFL games and another 12 in the playoffs, Super Bowl 2024 is finally here.
It felt strange not having any football last weekend, but now we have one of the world’s biggest sporting events taking place Sunday in Las Vegas. It’s 49ers vs. Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV from just four years ago.
The Niners completed two second-half comebacks to punch their ticket to the big game, while the Chiefs were in control in all three of their playoff games.
Here are my four favorite plays on PrizePicks for Sunday’s game.
Deebo Samuel more than 58.5 receiving yards
The Chiefs have the best defense in the NFL at limiting production to opposing WR1s, giving up just three 100-yard receiving games to them all season.
This has been a result of good cornerback play (L’Jarius Sneed) and good defensive scheming.
However, while Samuel often has the production of a top receiver, he doesn’t fit the mold of a typical WR1.
He receives a lot of his touches near the line of scrimmage because the Niners want to get him the ball in space and let his ability to break tackles do the rest.
He has hit this receiving-yards mark in five of his last seven full games (he left early against the Packers with an injury and only played a few snaps in Week 18) and should be heavily involved in Kyle Shanahan’s offensive game plan against the Chiefs.
Brandon Aiyuk fewer than 66.5 receiving yards
I’m baking in a little correlation with these first two picks. I like Samuel to get more than 58.5 receiving yards for the same reasons I like Aiyuk to have fewer than 66.5 receiving yards.
The Chiefs have already held Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs in check this postseason. It’s also worth noting that Kansas City has an elite pass rush and that Brock Purdy doesn’t have the best passing metrics when under pressure.
Shanahan will look to get the ball out of Purdy’s hands quickly and that should bode better for Samuel than for Aiyuk.
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Isiah Pacheco more than 15.0 fantasy points
As we saw in the Lions game, the best way to attack the Niners is on the ground.
They were 26th in EPA against the run during the regular season and have really struggled to stop opposing rushing attacks over the last couple of months.
Aaron Jones averaged 6.0 yards per carry against them in the divisional round, while the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 5.1 yards per carry in the NFC Championship game.
Pacheco should have plenty of open running lanes in Sunday’s game.
He’s also scored a touchdown in six of his last seven games and has caught the last 17 targets thrown his way.
I’m going with the over on his fantasy score rather than an individual stat category because this gives him more paths to success.
Christian McCaffrey more than 0.5 rushing + receiving touchdowns
This pick doesn’t have the standard payout but is still one that I like adding on PrizePicks.
McCaffrey has scored at least one touchdown in 15 of his 18 games this season.
Dating to last season, he has scored at least one touchdown in 27 of his last 31 games. That’s a remarkable track record.
Something tells me he will find the end zone again against the Chiefs, who are 26th in DVOA against the run and 27th in rush EPA.
Regardless of the game script, we know CMC is going to be heavily involved.
As his 18 rushing touchdowns and seven receiving TDs can attest, he’s just as productive catching the ball out of the backfield and hitting paydirt as he is running the ball into the end zone.
Enjoy the final game of the season and good luck.