Boy, John Calipari needed that one.
Before Saturday, the Kentucky Wildcats had been stuttering for a while. Their last Quad 1 win was in early January.
The defense had fallen off a cliff.
But the Wildcats walked into The Jungle and obliterated Auburn, jumping to an early double-digit lead, extending it to 16 in the second half and closing with an 11-point, wire-to-wire win.
Surprisingly, Kentucky didn’t play all that well offensively.
Instead, the defense suddenly woke up and shoved one of the nation’s best offenses into a locker.
The Wildcats held Auburn to the Tigers’ second-lowest single-game Offensive Rating mark of the season (90.5).
Unfortunately, Wednesday night in the Bayou looks like a prime letdown spot against an LSU team trending upward.
Kentucky vs. LSU odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | -4.5 (-105) | -182 | o165.5 (-110) |
| LSU | +4.5 (-115) | +150 | u165.5 (-110) |
Kentucky vs. LSU pick
(9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Following the biggest win of their season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Wildcats come out flat against lowly LSU on Wednesday.
It’s also a big lookahead spot for Kentucky, as Coach Cal’s squad is likely looking ahead to a home game against SEC-leading Alabama on Saturday.
Meanwhile, LSU is likely thrilled to be back at home after this recent stretch.
Five of the Tigers’ past seven games have come on the road, with trips to Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and South Carolina during the stretch.
And LSU didn’t play that poorly during this rough stretch.
Three of the Tigers’ past six losses came by a combined eight points, and they most recently pulled off a crazy, late-game upset over South Carolina in Columbia.
The situational spot screams LSU, as I expect an upstart Tigers squad to compete tooth-and-nail with a Kentucky squad ripe for regression.
The schematic matchup is messier.
The key for LSU on Wednesday will be trusting Cook to create in the pick-and-roll.
Since returning to the lineup, the Tulane transfer ranks in the 97th percentile of players in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP (1.19) and he’s calling his shot on more than 30% of plays.
Kentucky has a myriad of defensive problems. But a major one is on-ball defense against ball-screen dribble creators – i.e., the guards aren’t defending on the perimeter.
While Reed Sheppard has more than held his own, DJ Wagner, Rob Dillingham and Antonio Reeves are three brutal perimeter ball-screen defenders.
| Player | Ball-screen PPP allowed | Evan/Miya DBPR |
|---|---|---|
| R. Sheppard | .51 (91st percentile among D-I Players) | +3.6 (3rd among 123 SEC Players) |
| D. Wagner | 1.14 (5th percentile) | +0.6 (87th) |
| R. Dillingham | .94 (20th percentile) | +0.7 (78th) |
| A. Reeves | .80 (44th percentile) | -0.2 (111th) |
Sure, these guys put together an excellent performance against Auburn. But I’m not ready to believe the Wildcats’ defense is fixed.
Instead, I’m chalking up Kentucky’s excellent defensive performance to Auburn’s 4-for-22 (18%) 3-point shooting performance.
Cook should be able to hunt mismatches in ball screens and drive to the rack against whichever guard gets switched onto him.
Unfortunately, that’s only possible if he plays.
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Cook is listed as “questionable” to play Wednesday, as he missed Saturday’s game against South Carolina with a leg injury.
With the point guard in the lineup, I feel confident that the Tigers can compete on the floor in a solid situational spot.
Without him, my confidence drops significantly.
So, I recommend closely monitoring the injury report and hammering the Tigers if Cook is available.
Kentucky vs. LSU prediction
Bet: LSU +6.5 (-115, BetMGM) *** IF Jalen Cook plays