Betting

NHL predictions, best bets for Capitals vs. Red Wings, Flyers vs. Lightning

By
Social Links for Michael Leboff, Action Network
Published Feb. 27, 2024, 3:00 p.m. ET
Two games worth betting on in a massive NHL slate on Tuesday.
These two NHL underdogs offer good value for Tuesday's slate. Getty Images

Tuesday’s NHL slate is a doozy.

There are 12 games on the docket, and 11 of those contests feature at least one team fighting for a playoff berth or battling to win a division. 

With so much at stake, Tuesday sets up to be one of the best betting nights of the regular season. 

NHL best bets Tuesday

Capitals vs. Red Wings prediction

(7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Coming off an emotional win in Patrick Kane’s return to Chicago on Sunday night, the Red Wings are 15-4-2 since New Year’s Day and have won five in a row to put themselves in a terrific position to end their seven-year playoff drought.

But while Detroit deserves credit for its current run of form, there are some signals in the numbers that suggest that the Red Wings are working with some smoke and mirrors. 

It is concerning to see a team getting outplayed at five-on-five like Detroit is during this run.

Only one team (St. Louis) has a lower expected goal share than the Red Wings since the start of 2024, and only two (St. Louis and Chicago) have a worse high-danger scoring chance difference. 

Detroit has been able to cover up those blemishes with strong goaltending, clinical shooting and a strong power play, but it’s unlikely that this team will continue to outrun its statistical profile for much longer. 

The Red Wings are in a good spot Tuesday with Washington banged up and traveling on a back-to-back, but Detroit’s five-on-five play makes it a fade candidate for the time being and you’ll catch a great number on the Caps because of the schedule situation. 

PICK: Capitals (+145, BetRivers Sportsbook)

Don’t bet on Patrick Kane capturing lightning in a bottle again against the Capitals. NHLI via Getty Images

Lightning vs. Flyers prediction

( 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

It seems as if Tampa Bay has found its form at a crucial time.

The Bolts swept a back-to-back against the Islanders and Devils — two teams chasing them in the playoff race — over the weekend and have earned themselves some breathing room in the wild-card hunt. 

The wins, which came on the heels of a three-game losing streak that saw the Bolts get outscored 18-7, have quieted the speculation that Tampa Bay may punt on the season and look to sell at the trade deadline.

Now, the focus is on which defenseman the Bolts will add. It took 48 hours and two wins for the conversation to flip.

Tampa Bay looks to keep their playoff hopes alive sitting atop the Wild Card.
Tampa Bay looks to keep its playoff hopes alive. Getty Images

Philadelphia is in a different position. The Flyers won four in a row after the All-Star break, but they’ve gone 1-3-1 since and now will be without Jamie Drysdale for the foreseeable future.

They still have a five-point lead over the Devils in the Metropolitan Division, but the team’s recent run has many wondering if this is the start of its downfall. 

That seems a bit excessive.

Despite their poor form, there really isn’t anything that concerning in the numbers for the Flyers.

Philadelphia has done a terrific job of controlling play at five-on-five all season and that hasn’t changed lately.

The main culprit during this stretch has been some underwhelming finishing and goaltending. 

Betting on the NHL?

While the jury remains out on Samuel Ersson and Cal Petersen as a tandem, the Flyers were able to find some goals Sunday against Pittsburgh and the offensive upside for this team is better than average thanks to strong performances from Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny and Joel Farabee.

Philadelphia’s dip and Tampa Bay’s rise, all of which has happened in the last couple of days, has really changed the narratives around these two teams and that’s presented bettors with a great buy-low, sell-high spot. 

PICK: Flyers (+100, FanDuel Sportsbook)