Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the site of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race.
It’ll be the first traditional race of the season after starting with back-to-back drafting-style tracks.
The 1.5-mile oval should give us an early indication of which drivers will be weekly contenders.
The prop bets won’t feature longshots like Daytona and Atlanta, but there’s always value in NASCAR betting.
I’m not sure we’ll have a legendary finish like last week at Atlanta, but Vegas should produce quality racing.
Which drivers should you target for the 2024 Pennzoil 400? Here are my favorite props to bet.
NASCAR Cup Series: Pennzoil 400 prop bets
Driver matchup: Alex Bowman over Tyler Reddick (+115, BetMGM)
Both Bowman and Reddick are coming off miserable performances at Atlanta. A Lap 2 wreck ruined their race, and both had to ride around with damaged cars for the remaining 250-plus laps.
Vegas has been a strong track for Reddick, who has finished between sixth and eighth in four of his last five starts there.
Bowman has been especially strong in the Vegas Spring race, finishing in the top three in the previous two years.
A late two-tire stop propelled Bowman to victory lane in the Spring 2022 race. Overall, he has four finishes of sixth or better at the track.
I expect both drivers to finish in the 6-10 range. The odds should be -115 both ways, so I’m happy to take the +115 value on Bowman.
Martin Truex Jr. finishing position under 7.5 (+100, Caesars)
I’m seeing a new market at Caesars Sportsbook as the betting site offers odds for driver finishing position.
I’m taking advantage of the prop with Truex Jr. finishing seventh or better.
Vegas has long been a great track for Truex. He has two wins, seven top-fives, and 15 top-10 finishes in 24 starts.
Truex has finished worse than ninth only once in his last 13 starts at Vegas.
There have been four races at Vegas in the Next-Gen era. Truex has hung around his projection, posting finishes of eighth, seventh, seventh and ninth.
That eighth would’ve been a second if not for a late caution in the Spring 2022 race.
The back half of the top 10 is the floor for Truex. I expect him in top-five contention and he presents strong value for a finish of seventh or better.
Bubba Wallace finishing position under 14.5 (-130, Caesars)
We aren’t getting as much value with Wallace’s finishing position, but this prop shouldn’t be in question.
He has improved immensely as 1.5-mile tracks in the Next-Gen era and his Vegas numbers verify.
He finished top 10 in both stages before scoring a fourth-place finish in last year’s Spring race. Wallace earned a 13th-place finish in the Fall race.
He was on pace for a great finish in the Fall 2022 race. He led 29 laps and won Stage 1, but a crash led to an early exit.
Kansas is the closest comparison to Las Vegas, and that’s likely Wallace’s best track.
He should compete for a top-10 finish, and it’d be a big surprise to see him finish outside the top 15.
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Top Chevy car: Ross Chastain (+700, bet365)
It won’t be unpredictable like Daytona or Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find a big longshot for Las Vegas.
Personally, I’m shocked to see Chastain present so much value at one of his best tracks.
His breakout performance came in the 2022 Vegas Spring race. He led 83 laps, winning Stage 2 before scoring a third-place finish.
He followed that by leading 68 laps and finishing second in the Fall race.
Last season, Chastain scored a fifth-place finish in the Fall race. He has a tremendous track record at Vegas but faces stiff competition among Chevy drivers.
Kyle Larson, William Byron and Kyle Busch are among the Vegas race favorites and past winners.
Still, there’s way too much value not to bet on Chastain.
Nick Sterling is a NASCAR handicapper at Action Network. Follow him on X @nsterl3.