Last year featured a historic National League MVP race that saw Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mookie Betts put up extremely impressive numbers in a summer-long race for the award.
Acuña ultimately won the award thanks to an absurd 73 stolen bases with 40 home runs.
But can he repeat?
He’s already battling irritation in his meniscus and his absurd stolen base numbers were always unlikely to repeat.
There is certainly some value down the oddsboard to grab ahead of the 2024 regular season opening.
National League MVP odds and picks
The top of the NL MVP odds board — Acuña (+500, FanDuel), Betts (+650), Freddie Freeman (+900), Shohei Ohtani (+950), Matt Olson (12/1) — makes a clear case for the absurdity of the Braves and Dodgers lineups, as the two teams combine for six of the top-15 shortest prices.
Acuña is a worthy favorite but is already dealing with knee soreness in spring training.
He could potentially see Freeman and Austin Riley (25/1) steal some votes as well.
And with Ohtani not accruing value as a pitcher this season, I don’t see much upside there.
Bryce Harper played 126 games last season and just 99 in 2022, but that gives us a buy-low opportunity on a two-time NL MVP at 12/1.
Harper returned faster than expected last season and most likely wasn’t playing at full health, which could have contributed to his slow start.
Led by a monster second half, he still slashed .293/.401/.499 across 126 games and accrued 3.7 WAR.
The Phillies are projected to be either the third- or fourth-most productive team in the NL. A full season of in-form Trea Turner would likely work in Harper’s favor.
Citizens Bank Park also quietly ranks in the top 10 in Park Factors over the last three seasons.
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Harper’s WAR projects slightly lower at first base compared to when he was in the outfield, but the transition should help him stay in the lineup.
PICK: Bryce Harper to win NL MVP Award (12/1, FanDuel)
Nick Martin analyzes baseball for Action Network.Â