Alabama and Florida are two of the SEC’s best teams.
Specifically, the Tide and Gators are two of the SEC’s best offenses.
Bama has ridden its nation-best offense to a 12-4 SEC record, sitting one game behind Tennessee in the league, primarily through limitless transition 3s.
Meanwhile, Florida has chomped to a 10-6 league record by ranking 15th nationally in offensive efficiency, primarily through an up-tempo style, offensive rebounds, and second-chance points.Â
Five straight head-to-head matchups between these two have gone Over. The two combined for 180 regulation points in the late February matchup.
I expect more of the same on Tuesday.Â
Alabama vs. Florida odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | +1.5 (-105) | +104 | o176.5 (-108) |
| Florida | -1.5 (-115) | -125 | u176.5 (-112) |
Alabama vs. Florida prediction
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Nate Oats runs a rim-and-3 reliant, small-ball offensive lineup that’s the nation’s best through precision backcourt shooting and relentlessly attacking frontcourt mismatches.
However, as a result, he’s eschewed any attempt at interior defense, rim protection or rebounding.
Alabama ranks 10th in the SEC in paint points per game allowed (33), 11th in post-up PPP allowed (0.87), 11th in free-throw rate allowed and 10th in defensive rebounding rate.
Oats attempts to run a drop-coverage defense – overplaying ball-handlers and shooters on the perimeter, forcing opposing offenses into middle-of-the-floor ball-screen and dribble creation – but the Tide don’t have the personnel to run it effectively.
As a result, Alabama is the second-worst ball-screen coverage (0.86 PPP) and mid-range defense (0.80 PPP) in the SEC.
Unfortunately for them, Florida’s offense is devastating in both areas. The Gators are the conference’s best pick-and-roll offense (0.93 PPP) and second-best mid-range offense (0.84 PPP).
The backcourt trio of Walter Clayton, Zyon Pullin and Will Richard is unstoppable in those areas. All three are speedy, tight with the dribble and explosive shot creators.
Additionally, Todd Golden runs exclusively two-big lineups – mostly with 6-foot-10 Tyrese Samuel and 7-foot-1 Micah Handgloten – that ruthlessly crash the offensive boards. Florida ranks third nationally in offensive rebounding rate, generating 14 second-chance points per game.
The Gators scored 20 second-chance points on 17 offensive rebounds in the late February matchup with Alabama, and I expect more of the same this Tuesday.
But Florida’s two-big rotations means the Gators are slightly slow-footed, which has a few effects.
First, the Gators have a poor open-court defense, ranking 12th in the SEC in transition PPP allowed (1.05). That’ll hurt against Alabama’s explosive, up-tempo offense that ranks second in the conference in fast-break points per game (15).
Second, while the Gators also run a drop-coverage defense that denies 3-point shooters and promotes on-ball creation, they’re too slow to close out effectively on shooters, ranking ninth in the SEC in Open 3 Rate allowed and 14th in mid-range PPP allowed (.97).
It’s almost impossible to stop Alabama’s bevy of shot creators. Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada are lethal shot creators and shot makers.
Third, and finally, Florida’s oversized frontcourt will be exploited by Alabama’s Rylan Griffen at the four, who’s scored double-digit points in 14 of his past 18 games by attacking bigger, slower defenders off the bounce.
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Ultimately, I expect a shootout in Gainesville. The schematic matchup is too good for both offenses, so these Tide-Gator matchups always soar Over the closing total.Â
Expect more of the same Tuesday and wager accordingly.
Alabama vs. Florida pick
Over 176.5 (-108, FanDuel) | Play to 179.5 (-110)