PORT ST. LUCIE — It might be incidental that Pete Alonso’s subpar (for him) 2023 season coincided with a disastrous year from Mets No. 5 hitters.
The fifth hitters in the lineup — most used in that slot were Daniel Vogelbach, Jeff McNeil and Brett Baty — posted a cumulative .652 OPS that was the third-worst among No. 5 hitters in baseball.
But it is at least possible that the Mets’ slugging first baseman, who still supplied power but hit just .217, saw worse pitches because opposing pitchers were not fearful about the hitter in the on-deck circle.
The concept of lineup protection — of the next hitter’s ability affecting the current at-bat — is a disputed one, with many particularly in the analytic community doubting its effect.
Players tend not to doubt it.
It is “100 percent” real, said Adam Ottavino, who is entering his 14th season. “If a guy’s a great player, and you don’t have to face him because you can walk him, sometimes that’s a good outcome too.”
Which would mean finding a bat who can force pitchers to pitch to Alonso should be a critical item on the Mets’ to-do list.
For Tuesday’s 5-4 win over the Yankees at Clover Park, the Mets employed what resembled a regular-season lineup (the only exception being the healing Jeff McNeil did not play).
Batting fifth was Francisco Álvarez, who followed up a leadoff double from Alonso in the second inning with a ground out to third.
It is spring training and meaningless, but Alonso was left stranded in the frame.
“Álvarez is definitely a consideration [for No. 5],” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “But there’s a lot of different ways we can go.”
Álvarez’s first season was an unmitigated success for a catcher who impressed defensively, smacked 25 home runs and only turned 22 in November.
But he batted .209 and was as streaky as anyone in baseball.
Can the Mets rely on a No. 5 hitter with a sky-high upside — but with uncertainty that upside will be tapped into so early in his career?
“He definitely has the DNA to be a 3, 4, 5 hitter,” hitting coach Eric Chávez said. “It just depends on what jump he takes. Physically, mentally, maturity, which — he’s looked phenomenal in every aspect of everything he’s done.”
The focus for Álvarez through a camp in which he is 2-for-10 with a home run has been to eliminate pop-ups and continue getting his barrel on the ball.
“Just focus on hitting more line drives,” Chávez said. “He feels really good about what he’s been working on.”
If not Álvarez at No. 5, the Mets could turn to McNeil, who even when he is at his best more frustrates than scares opposing pitchers.
Or Starling Marte, if the outfielder who hopes to bounce back is bumped down in the lineup.
Or DJ Stewart, if the September discovery proves to be for real.
Or Mark Vientos or Baty, if either promising but unproven prospect takes a big step.
Baty, who roped an RBI single Tuesday and is 3-for-18 with a homer in the Grapefruit League, has acknowledged that his confidence took a hit last season, when he rode the emotional “roller coaster” as his numbers suffered.
This spring, his hitting coach is seeing a more relaxed player and hitter.
“It’s just convincing yourself you can do it,” Chávez said of Baty. “‘I can hit. I know I can hit this pitching. I know I can make this play. I know I can make this throw.’ ”
If the Mets end up deciding they do not have the No. 5 hitter in camp, they could turn to a free agent such as J.D. Martinez, who looms as an option if he remains unemployed and if the Mets grow concerned with their current, in-house DH plan.
However they proceed, many around the team feel that lineup protection is real, which means someone will have to step up to ensure opposing pitchers have good reason to pitch to Alonso.
Chávez said he remembers feeling unprotected in the A’s lineup during a relatively down 2005 season and communicating that feeling to then-GM Billy Beane after the year.
The A’s then brought in Frank Thomas to bat behind him.
“It definitely matters,” Chávez said.
