Purdue is one win away from back-to-back outright Big Ten regular-season titles.
At 15-3, the Boilermakers have a two-game lead over 13-5 Illinois heading into the regular season’s final week.
The two face off Tuesday.
If the Illini can pull off the home upset, they still have a shot at a share of the regular-season title, even if it requires a win over Iowa combined with a Purdue home loss to Wisconsin this upcoming Sunday.
History favors Purdue, as the Boilers have won four consecutive head-to-head matchups, but I’ll instead back another trend.
Purdue vs. Illinois odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | +1.5 (-104) | +104 | o163.5 (-105) |
| Illinois | -1.5 (-118) | -25 | u163.5 (-115) |
Purdue vs. Illinois prediction
(7 p.m. ET, Peacock)
Four consecutive games between these two have flown Over the closing total.
After digging into the matchup, it’s easy to see why.
When Purdue has the ball, the Boilermakers play almost exclusively through National Player of the Year Zach Edey in the post. Their 464 post-up possessions lead the nation and Edey has run 363.
Edey’s scored 1.04 PPP on those sets, ranking in the 83rd percentile of D-I players. The whole team generates 1.00 PPP, ranking in the 90th percentile of D-I teams.
Illinois runs a drop-coverage defense – the scheme overplays ball-handlers on the perimeter and shooters on the wing while funneling them toward rim protectors sagging in the paint – which theoretically should neutralize some of Edey’s dominance.
But the Illini’s interior defense has fallen off in conference play. They rank below the D-I average in post-up PPP allowed (0.87, 48th percentile) and allow the third-most paint points per game in the Big Ten (36, only Iowa and Michigan allow more).Â
Illinois loves playing the versatile Coleman Hawkins at the five, as he’s a three-level scorer, rock-solid ball-handler and 40% 3-point shooter. However, despite standing 6-foot-10, his slim frame means he gets bullied on the block, allowing 0.94 post-up PPP (38th percentile).Â
Similarly, Dain Danja (0.89 post-up PPP allowed, 48th percentile) and Luke Goode (1.15 PPP allowed, 14th percentile) have struggled to defend the low block.
Who will stop Edey?
He had 10 points and 15 rebounds on 5-for-5 shooting in the last matchup – including six points on six post-up possessions – and he went for 17 and six on 6-for-13 shooting in last year’s meeting. Purdue won both games and has scored 80-plus in three of the past four head-to-head meetings.
On the other end of the court, I think Illinois should have success leveraging Hawkins, Marcus Domask and Terrance Shannon Jr. in the Illini’s lethal five-out offense.
Given his massive frame, Edey is vulnerable when forced to defend out in space, and Illinois is built to spread out defenses to hunt favorable isolation matchups via switches.
While Purdue has size on the interior, Matt Painter runs small across the rest of the lineup.
The 6-foot-6 Shannon, 6-foot-6 Domask and 6-foot-8 Quincy Gurrier will enjoy a substantial size advantage facing up against the 6-foot-0 Braden Smith, 6-foot-1 Lance Jones, 6-foot-4 Fletcher Loyer and 6-foot-6 Mason Gillis.
Illinois should be able to generate plus-matchups across the floor for 40 minutes. Specifically, Brad Underwood would be wise to utilize cutters against Purdue’s lackluster cutting defense (1.25 PPP allowed, 25th percentile), especially after scoring 17 points on 10 cuts in the last matchup.
So, I expect both teams to generate plenty of half-court offense.
And even if the first shot bricks, these two should generate plenty of second-chance opportunities. The Illini and Boilermakers rank first and second in the Big Ten in second-chance points per game, with 15 and 14, respectively.
In the early January head-to-head meeting, the two combined for 29 second-chance points on 30 offensive rebounds.
One final point: These two rank first and second in the Big Ten in free-throw rate. Illinois and Purdue live at the line, which has two effects for this matchup.
First, the two generate plenty of easy points. They call it the charity stripe for a reason.
Second, free throws stop the clock and extend the game, especially late in each half when guys get into foul trouble, and each team earns the bonus. That’ll add tons of points while zero time comes off the clock, significantly boosting the probability of a high-scoring ball game.
And if the game remains close for 40 minutes, as the spread indicates, end-of-game intentional fouls will make the final few minutes exceedingly high-scoring.
The two combined for 45 free throws in the prior matchup.
Ultimately:
- Both teams should score on their first possession, Purdue in the post and Illinois in isolation.
- If they don’t score, both teams should draw fouls.
- If they don’t score or draw fouls, both teams should grab offensive rebounds and generate second-chance points.
The schematics call for a shootout in Champaign on Tuesday and I expect one, given both teams are fighting for the regular-season title.
Again, four straight head-to-head meetings have gone over.
Expect more of the same and wager accordingly.
Purdue vs. Illinois pick
Over 163.5 (-105) at FanDuel | Play to 165 (-110)