NASCAR’s West Coast swing continues with the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway. It’s an important race for every team, as Phoenix will host the Championship race in November.
Last week, Kyle Larson reminded everyone why he’s the Championship favorite. He led 181 of 267 laps in a dominant victory at Las Vegas. Larson aims for two in a row and his second career Phoenix win.
Phoenix is the season’s first short flat track race, and Ford’s have excelled on the track type. The manufacturer needs a great performance after a tough start to 2024.
How can we earn a betting edge on NASCAR racing at Phoenix? Let’s check out my favorite prop bets for Sunday’s race.
Prop Bets for the Shriners Children’s 500
Driver Matchup: Kyle Busch Over Christopher Bell (+100, DraftKings)
Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell were among the pre-race favorites at Las Vegas but problems led to a disappointing finish for both. The odds like Bell over Busch at Phoenix but I’m taking the veteran.
Bell’s Phoenix numbers are good, but not great. Over the last two years, he has one finish better than 10th and finished outside the top 25 twice.
Busch’s Phoenix history is as good as anyone’s, but I wouldn’t expect a great performance. His last four Phoenix races show three finishes of eighth or better.
Busch has had an excellent start to the 2024 season. I expect a top-five performance on Sunday, with Bell running in the back half of the top 10.
Driver Matchup: Michael McDowell Over Noah Gragsgon (-115, ESPN BET)
The big surprise at Las Vegas was Noah Gragson scoring a sixth-place finish. The expectations were low for Gragson ahead of the 2024 season, but that finish may signal a surprise season.
Ultimately, it’s still only one race, and he could return to his usual running position of 25th. We have much more data with Michael McDowell, and his recent Phoenix finishes give me hope.
Before last season, McDowell never finished better than 16th in 24 starts at Phoenix. He quickly flipped the script, finishing 13th and ninth in last year’s Phoenix races.
McDowell should easily finish top 20, if not top 15. Gragson could back up last week’s run or finish 25th. McDowell is a much safer option in this matchup.
Top Toyota Car: Tyler Reddick (+550, bet365)
Kyle Larson was the dominant car last week, but Tyler Reddick had more speed in the closing laps. Reddick nearly tracked down Larson but came up one spot short.
Overall, it was a big positive to see Reddick’s speed. He was easily the class of the Toyota’s, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar performance at Phoenix.
If you look at the last two Spring races at Phoenix, Reddick has back-to-back third-place finishes. He’s the only Toyota driver with multiple top-five finishes at Phoenix over the last two seasons.
There has to be motivation after coming so close last week. Reddick should lead the Toyota camp as he competes for the win.
Winning Car Number: 10-19 (+175, Caesars)
We’ll have eight drivers competing with a car number between 10-19. I’d say there are three drivers with a strong chance of winning, with two others having a decent chance to compete for a solid finish.
Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. are the elite contenders from this group. Blaney is my favorite race-winner pick, as he has three straight second-place finishes at Phoenix.
Hamlin has two career wins at Phoenix, and has finished top-five in five of his last 10 races. Truex has finished sixth or better in three of his last six Phoenix starts.
Chase Briscoe and Chris Buescher likely need some help but they could be contenders. Briscoe’s only win in the Cup Series was the 2022 Spring race at Phoenix, and Buescher won a stage en route to a fifth-place finish in last year’s Fall race.