The Knicks have fallen to fifth in the Eastern Conference. They’re now just one loss away from dropping into one of the four spots for the play-in tournament.
Injuries have been a problem for the Knicks, as they’re currently without three frontcourt starters: OG Anunoby (elbow), Julius Randle (shoulder), and Mitchell Robinson (ankle).
Starting point Jalen Brunson also missed their last game with a left knee contusion and will be a game-time decision when they host the Magic on Friday night.
Orlando is largely responsible for New York’s drop in the standings, seeing that it won five straight games to move into the fourth seed.
Orlando held three teams under 100 points during this win streak, while two failed to reach 90.
Considering that this total opened at 211 points before being bet down to 205.5, Orlando has shown an ability to perform well in these low-scoring games.
Knicks vs. Magic odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Magic -1.5 (-112) | Over 204 (-110) | Magic -122 |
| Knicks +1.5 (-108) | Under 204 (-110) | Knicks +104 |
Magic analysis
Good defense has been the Magic’s strong suit all season, so it’s no surprise that it’s played a significant role during this recent run. Per NBA.com, Orlando currently ranks fourth in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.2 points per 100 possessions.
If you’re curious, it has a 100.0 defensive rating over the last five games.
Orlando does exceptionally well defending the perimeter. It ranks sixth in opponent 3-point attempts (32.7) and fifth in opponent 3-point field goals (11.6).
The Magic also force opponents to take less-than-optimal shots in the midrange (15 to 19 feet), as they rank sixth with 5.8 attempts per game.
Forcing opponents to attempt more midrange shots is a common trait among the better teams in the league. The five teams ahead of Orlando include the Bucks, Lakers, Celtics, Timberwolves, and Nuggets.
Four of those five teams are seeded at least third in their respective conferences.
What’s refreshing about this Magic team is that it doesn’t try to be something it’s not. Orlando knows it doesn’t have the personnel to compete with teams offensively, so the team emphasizes its defense more.
Orlando is also better able to control the game by playing slower, averaging two fewer possessions (101) this season than last year (103).
Knicks analysis
New York has managed to stay afloat thanks to a 14-2 month in January. Their impressive run really began when they acquired Anunoby via trade on Dec. 30.
Two days later, the former Raptor debuted at Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks defeated the Timberwolves 112-106
Although the Knicks won their next three games after Anunoby picked up an elbow injury, the attrition finally caught up to them with just four wins in their last 13 games.
Anunoby impacts both sides of the court. Offensively, he gives the Knicks better spacing by moving without the ball. He’s also an elite defender who can guard all five positions on the floor.
To get a sense of just how valuable Anunoby can be for the Knicks, before his arrival, New York gave up 124.4 points per game in December. The following month, the Knicks’ opponents averaged just 100 points, resulting in the most significant month-to-month improvement in the NBA’s history.
Anunoby is the player who seems to knit everything together for the Knicks because he makes everyone else’s job on the floor easier.
Considering that the Knicks are effectively worse on offense and defense without Anunoby on the floor, their ability to overcome additional absences in their starting lineup becomes even more unlikely.
Knicks vs. Magic prediction
With New York battling multiple injuries, it’s tried to play slower to reduce the number of possessions in a game. While this strategy makes plenty of sense, the problem is the Knicks aren’t good enough defensively without Anunoby to make it work.
Unlike Orlando, they’re simply not creating enough point differential to improve their chances of winning these games.
The Knicks must rely on their defense because they’re not a great shooting team. They’re 21st in effective field goal percentage (53.6%) and 25th from the floor (46.3% FG).
Thus, having fewer possessions doesn’t help your cause when you’re already in the bottom third of the league in those field goal categories.
When I look at this matchup and the low total, I’ve got to think it suits the Magic much more than the Knicks. According to our Action Labs database, New York is 0-2 against the spread (ATS) this season with an opening total of 211 or fewer points.
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We’ve also seen quite a few long winning streaks this season, and the most profitable spot has been when teams have won five straight games. That angle is 25-14 (64.1%) and is currently on a 6-0 ATS run.
We only have to lay a short price with the visitors as Orlando is a one-point favorite at BetParx.