The best rivalry in college basketball is back Saturday, as Duke hosts North Carolina in Durham.
Not only is this a monster rivalry game between two blue bloods, but there’s much more on the line in the ACC regular-season finale.
The Heels (16-3) hold a one-game lead over the Devils (15-4) in the conference standings.
UNC beat Duke at home earlier this year, but the Devils would split the season series with a victory Saturday, resulting in a regular-season title share.
However, a Duke win would also mean the top seed in the ACC Tournament would come down to tiebreakers.
Here’s the tiebreaker rules, courtesy of the ACC:
“a. When two teams are tied in the standings, regular season head-to-head results are used as the tiebreaker.
b. If the tied teams played each other twice in the regular season and split their games, then each team’s record against the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings (or in case of a tie for first place, the next highest position in the regular-season standings) and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. 1) When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tiebreaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams. 2) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against a team or group is unequal (e.g., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-3). If the winning percentage of the tied teams is equal against a team or group of tied teams, continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.”
Essentially, the top seed would be decided by how Duke and UNC played against common opponents toward the top of the standings, including Virginia, Syracuse, Clemson, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest.
Here are the No. 1 seed scenarios if Duke wins:
It’s safe to say that Saturday’s game is monumentally important.
And I think Duke makes things interesting with an emphatic win.
North Carolina vs. Duke prediction
(6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Following a tough road loss to Wake Forest on Feb. 24, Duke has posted three convincing double-digit wins over Louisville (84-59), Virginia (73-48) and NC State (79-64).
While the Tar Heels are still winning, they’ve flirted with disaster over the past two weeks, barely holding off a shorthanded Miami team (75-71, as 14.5-point favorites) and an average NC State team (79-70, as 10.5-point favorites).
I’m a bit worried about North Carolina’s perimeter defense. On the year, the Heels rank second in the ACC in 3-point shooting allowed (31%), but they also rank last in Open 3 Rate allowed, meaning they’ve been gifted some good fortune.
That’s sure to come crashing down, as it did against Miami (14-for-30 from deep, 47%) and NC State (9-for-19, 47%).
The Heels beat the Devils by nine at home, but Duke shot 5-for-19 (26%) from 3, while North Carolina shot 9-for-24 (38%). If home-court advantage and shooting luck switches, I expect the Devils to win and cover Saturday.
And it’s easy to imagine Duke shooting the lights out. The Devils can 38% of their 3s, mainly because opposing defenses get dragged toward the interior by Kyle Filipowski’s dominant interior game, thus opening up the perimeter for deadly shooters like Jeremy Roach (44% from 3 this year), Jared McCain (41%) and Tyrese Proctor (37%).
From a general schematic perspective, Duke should win the game if it controls the tempo.
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Since Jon Scheyer took over for Mike Krzyzewski, the Devils have significantly slowed their pace of play, and they’re much more comfortable in those slower-paced game scripts. Duke is 2-3 in five games that exceeded 70 possessions but 20-3 otherwise.
Conversely, North Carolina is much more comfortable in fast-paced games, running what I like to call a “pace-and-post” offense behind the three-headed backcourt monster of Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan, who push the pace and dish the ball to Armando Bacot in the low post.
But Duke is a solid transition denial defense and an even better post-up defense, so the Heels can combat the Heels’ style.
Obviously, North Carolina won the pace-and-post battle in the first meeting, scoring 43 points on 34 transition and post-up possessions (1.26) in a 74-possession game.
But again, Duke should be able to control the pace better on its home floor, if only because North Carolina struggles to establish its up-tempo offense on the road:
| North Carolina | FB PPG | Pace |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.5 | 71.5 |
| Away | 10.4 | 66.5 |
If Duke controls the pace and sees some positive shooting regression, the Blue Devils should win this home game and force a tie atop the ACC standings.
The Devils are 13-6 ATS at home for a reason, and I expect a big revenge game Saturday.
North Carolina vs. Duke pick
BET: Duke -4.5 (-110, FanDuel)