If you’re not in the mood for a hamburger after reading this, you might be a vegan — even though this has about as much to do with food as a colonoscopy. Now you know what I’ve been craving since making Jake Burger the topic for this week’s column (the burger, not the colonoscopy).
Burger started the 2023 season with the White Sox, the team that made him a first-round choice in 2017.
Though he broke out with his power numbers, blasting 25 homers and driving in 52 runs in his first 88 games, his .214 average and 102 strikeouts in 323 plate appearances looked more like an impression of Adam Dunn.
During that span, he had the sixth-highest strikeout rate and the fifth-worst on-base percentage among players with a minimum of 300 plate appearances.
In August, however, Burger was surprisingly traded (he’s controllable for another five years) to Miami, and that’s where his season really got interesting.
In 53 games with the Marlins, he raised his average from .214 to .250 after hitting .303 with nine homers, 28 RBIs, 27 runs and a .850 OPS.
Yes, there was a noticeable decrease in his power production. He went from hitting a dinger in 7.7 percent of his at-bats to just 4.2 percent. Sure, the new ballpark could have been a factor — Guaranteed Rate Field is a homer haven for righties, loanDepot park not so much — but there’s more to it than just the venue.
Burger slashed his strikeout rate from 31.6 with the White Sox to 21.7 percent with the Marlins (which actually started in his final month in Chicago when he reduced his strikeout rate by more than 5 percent).
His contact rate increased by nearly 4 percent, and his zone contact rate went up almost 5 percent. His line drive rate improved by almost 6 percent, and his flyball rate dropped by almost 8 percent.
Does this mean Burger is now a contact hitter and his power is gone? Not at all, his power is legit.
According to Statcast, Burger ranked in the top 1 percent of the league (seventh overall) in maximum exit velocity (118.2 mph).
His 91.9 mph average exit velocity ranked 25th, and his hard-hit rate (49.6 percent) was 24th. His barrels per plate appearance percentage (10.7) ranked seventh, and his flyball/line drive exit velocity (97.8 mph) was sixth.
Do not doubt his power!
You should, however, doubt his .303 average after the trade. His .354 BABIP indicates luck was on his side, so it’s more likely he will hit closer to the .250 mark he finished the season with (he’s a career .251 hitter).
There’s more to love about Burger.
He has a great chance to be Miami’s cleanup hitter (or, at the very least, hit in the middle of the order), which should provide plenty of RBI opportunities.
He hit .282 with four homers and 10 RBIs when hitting third last year, .320 when hitting fourth and .275 with 11 homers, 27 RBIs and a .942 OPS when hitting fifth.
Perhaps the best thing about Burger is his 161.88 average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm. He is being drafted about 90 spots below Alex Bregman (77.25) — who hit .262 with 25 homers, 98 RBIs, 103 runs and a .804 OPS — and more than 70 slots below Nolan Arenado (89.33) — who hit .266 with 26 homers, 93 RBIs, 71 runs and a .774 OPS.
Over 141 games last year, Burger hit .250 with 34 homers, 80 RBIs, 71 runs and a .806 OPS. If you miss out on top third basemen, — like Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, Gunnar Henderson or Royce Lewis — there’s no reason to settle for players like Bregman or Arenado when you can have similar production from a player seven or eight rounds later.
Tasty Burger! Sorry, meant to say: Target Burger!
Guide to Insanity
Draft preview special
Part 3 of 5
Roto Rage Jarad Wilk ranks corner infielders. Next week: starting pitchers.
First base
1. Freddie Freeman, LAD
2. Matt Olson, Atl
3. Bryce Harper, Phi
4. Pete Alonso, NYM
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Tor
6. Paul Goldschmidt, StL
7. Christian Walker, Ari
8. Cody Bellinger, ChC
9. Triston Casas, Bos
10. Josh Naylor, Cle
11. Spencer Steer, Cin
12. Nathaniel Lowe, Tex
13. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cin
14. Spencer Torkelson, Det
15. Yandy Diaz, RB
16. Alex Bohm, Phi
17. Nolan Jones, Col
18. Vinnie Pasquantino, KC
19. Ryan Mountcastle, Bal
20. Salvador Perez, KC
21. Anthony Santander, Bal
22. Josh Bell, Mia
23. Rhys Hoskins, Mil
24. Jose Abreu, Hou
25. Justin Turner, Tor
26. Brandon Drury, LAA
27. Ty France, Sea
28. Luis Arraez, Mia
29. Anthony Rizzo, NYY
30. Jeimer Candelario, Cin
31. Alex Kirilloff, Min
32. Joey Meneses, Was
33. Andrew Vaughn, CWS
34. Ryan Noda, Oak
35. Isaac Paredes, TB
36. Mark Canha, Det
37. Luke Raley, Sea
38. Kyle Manzardo, Cle
39. Elehuris Montero, Col
40. Carlos Santana, Min
41. C.J. Cron, FA
42. Patrick Wisdom, ChC
43. Wilmer Flores, SF
44. Jake Cronenworth, SD
45. LaMonte Wade, SF
46. Mark Vientos, NYM
47. Kike Hernandez, LAD
48. J.D. Davis, SF
49. Nolan Schanuel, LAA
50. Seth Brown, Oak
51. Garrett Cooper, FA
52. Brandon Belt, FA
53. Gio Urshela, Det
54. Joey Gallo, Was
55. Ramon Urias, Bal
Third base
1. Jose Ramirez, Cle
2. Austin Riley, Atl
3. Rafel Devers, Bos
4. Gunnar Henderson, Bal
5. Royce Lewis, Min
6. Manny Machado, SD
7. Elly De La Cruz, Cin
8. Josh Jung, Tex
9. Alex Bregman, Hou
10. Nolan Arenado, StL
11. Jake Burger, Mia
12. Spencer Steer, Cin
13. Nolan Gorman, StL
14. Noelvi Marte, Cin
15. Ha-Seong Kim, SD
16. Max Muncy, LAD
17. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pit
18. Elehuris Montero, Col
19. Jordan Westburg, Bal
20. Junior Caminero, TB
21. Maikel Garcia, KC
22. Alex Bohm, Phi
23. Jorge Polanco, Sea
24. Matt Chapman, SF
25. Ryan McMahon, Col
26. Jeimer Candelario, Cin
27. Eugenio Suarez, Ari
28. Wilmer Flores, SF
29. Luis Rengifo, LAA
30. Chris Taylor, LAD
31. Isaac Paredes, TB
32. Jared Triolo, Pit
33. Patrick Wisdom, ChC
34. Geraldo Perdomo, Ari
35. DJ LeMahieu, NYY
36. Jon Berti, Mia
37. Josh Rojas, Sea
38. Bretty Baty, NYM
39. Willi Castro, Min
40. Mark Vientos, NYM
41. Curtis Mead, TB
42. Yoan Moncada, CWS
43. J.D. Davis, SF
44. Kike Hernandez, LAD
45. Zach McKinstry, Det
46. Jordan Diaz, Oak
47. Gio Urshela, Det
48. Luis Urias, Sea
49. Ramon Urias, Bal
50. Andruw Monasterio, Mil
51. Nicky Lopez, CWS
52. Matt Vierling, Det
53. Jean Segura, Cle
54. Michael Busch, ChC
55. Kyle Farmer, Min
Team Name of the Week
Vaughn in 60 Seconds