CIA estimated 50% chance that Russia would nuke Ukraine if it risked losing war: report
The Biden administration scrambled behind the scenes to prepare for the imminent possibility that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a shocking new report revealed.
In 2022, the CIA warned President Biden of a 50% change or higher that Russia would reach for its nuclear arsenal if it found its forces were decimated and the illegally annexed territory of Crimea was at risk, according to the New York Times.
Those reports caused Biden to deliver his famous “Armageddon” speech at an Oct. 6, 2022, fundraiser in New York City, in which he warned, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.”
Biden’s remarks came just a week before the 60th anniversary of the Cold War incident, with the president echoing his intelligence officials’ warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s would be serious should he ever suggest a nuclear option.
“He is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming,” Biden told attendees at the New York fundraiser.
After Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, US intelligence officials initially said there was no evidence Russia planned to use weapons on mass destruction.
However, after Ukraine counter-attacked and began to push back the Russian advance, the CIA warned that it had intercepted increasing chatter from Russian forces about the possibility of using smaller-scale “tactical” nuclear weapons.
Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley called the situation “the nuclear paradox” for the US, which has provided $74 billion in aid to Ukraine in the hopes of beating back the Kremlin.
“The more successful the Ukrainians are at ousting the Russian invasion, the more likely Putin is to threaten to use a bomb — or reach for it,” he told the Times.
The October 2022 talks were originally highlighted by CNN’s Jim Sciutto, who has gone into depth about the warnings in his upcoming book, “The Return of Great Powers.”
Senior Biden administration officials told Sciutto that following the warning, the Biden’s team was “preparing rigorously” for the possibility that Russia would deploy a nuke in Ukraine.
One senior official reportedly said the National Security Council convened to discuss how the US would react to a nuclear strike by Russia, and how they could deter one or preempt it.
“I don’t think many of us coming into our jobs expected to be spending significant amounts of time preparing for a scenario which a few years ago was believed to be from a bygone era,” the official told Sciutto of the meeting that was reminiscent of Cold War talks.
Along with the intelligence briefings, fears of the possible nuclear strike were heightened that same month when Kremlin officials began claiming that Kyiv could use a “dirty bomb” against Russia.
Officials feared the claims were part of a campaign to justify the possible use of a nuclear attack by Russia.
Now that Russia appears to have the upper hand one the battlefield, US intelligence no longer believes there is an imminent risk of a nuclear strike, the Times reported.
However, Putin has not ruled out the use of his nation’s vast nuclear arsenal — which includes mobile ballistic missiles in Russia, nuclear missile submarines throughout the world and long-range bombers capable of carrying nukes — after touting last month that his weapons can “hit targets” in the West should western nations directly interfere in the war.
“[Western nations] must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” Putin said during his annual address to parliament. “All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don’t they get that?!”
The eerie warning came after Putin referenced an idea floated by French President Emmanuel Macron of European NATO members sending ground troops to Ukraine, which was rejected by the US, Britain and Germany, among others.
