In just its second year since joining the Sun Belt, James Madison is in a conference championship game Monday night for a chance to grab an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament.
The Dukes are the only Division I team with 30 wins, and they currently have the longest winning streak at 12 games. Their last loss was Jan. 27 against Appalachian State, who won the regular-season title.
However, there won’t be any chance for the Dukes to exact revenge because the Arkansas State Red Solves knocked off top-seeded App State in the Sun Belt semifinals on Sunday with a buzzer-beating shot in a 67-65 win.
The Sun Belt championship is now down to two teams: No. 4 Arkansas State vs. No. 2 James Madison.
The Dukes opened as seven-point favorites but that number is already down to -5.5 at most sportsbooks.
While the Red Wolves are certainly the trendy ‘dogs, their upset victory over Appalachian State should keep the Dukes on their toes, especially in the first half.
Arkansas State vs. James Madison odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State + 5.5 (-110) | Over 150.5 (-105) | Arkansas State +190 |
| James Madison -5.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-115) | James Madison -235 |
Arkansas State analysis
It’s easy to see why the market likes Arkansas State in this spot. It’s been one of the most profitable teams for bettors, evidenced by a 19-10-1 mark against the spread (ATS) in our Action Labs database.Â
However, this is still a very flawed team, particularly on the defensive end. The Red Wolves rank 243rd in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, allowing 110 points per 100 possessions.
They play with a very distinct style, more willing to give up scoring opportunities inside the paint than behind the perimeter.
According to Haslametrics.com, Arkansas State ranks 289th in opponent near-proximity field goal attempts (layups, tip-ins, dunks), with 33.37 per 100 trips up the court.
The Red Wolves’ goal is to outscore their opponent from the perimeter. According to TeamRankings, they rank 20th in 3-pointers, with 9.5 per game.
James Madison outscored Arkansas State, 42-30, inside the paint in the first meeting. Although the Red Wolves finished with nine 3-point field goals compared to six for the Dukes, they had 30 attempts, while James Madison had 18.
As a result, the Red Wolves tend to have a fair amount of empty possessions when they resort to hunting for three-pointers.
James Madison analysis
Make no mistake, James Madison is the more balanced of the two teams. What’s impressive about the Dukes is their ability to take high-quality shots.
The Dukes aren’t far behind Arkansas State in terms of their 3-point shooting. They rank 59th in the country with 8.6 3-pointers per game.
However, James Madison isn’t as reliant on three-pointers as the Red Wolves, considering the Dukes rank 34th in near-proximity attempts with 35.44 per 100 trips.
Thus, it’s plausible that they will be less wasteful with their possessions if they can establish dominance inside the paint.
Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency margin makes James Madison roughly eight points better than Arkansas State. That number seems to align with the opening number before being bet down.
Arkansas State can sometimes play with a bit of desperation, resulting in a heavy dose of 3-point shots. It makes the Red Wolves particularly dangerous for a potential backdoor cover.
To guard against this, a first-half play on James Madison makes the most sense in this spot.
Arkansas State vs. James Madison pick
One key component to my handicap is Haslametrics’ Consistency measure, which looks at how well teams perform compared to their projected offense and defensive efficiencies.
James Madison ranks 22nd in this category, while Arkansas State is 344th.
The second half of college basketball games can be somewhat unpredictable if a team just abandons its game plan and starts launching 3-pointers.
A point spread won’t necessarily capture this shift in strategy, which might explain why the Red Wolves have such an impressive ATS mark.
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If you look at Arkansas State’s performance in the first half as an underdog, it’s 5-9 ATS despite having an 8-5-1 ATS mark for the full game.
Those numbers support my belief that the Red Wolves often chase the game in the second half out of desperation.
With the full-game point spread down to 5.5, I prefer to take advantage of the more consistent team in the first half and back James Madison as a 2.5-point favorite.
Pick: James Madison 1H -2.5 (-115, DraftKings)