Championship Week is here. That means one overwhelming storyline: Bubble teams jockeying for position, hoping they have enough on their respective résumés to reach the NCAA Tournament.
Of everything to watch over the next week, who’s in and who’s out will be the most talked-about topic by a wide margin. Bracketologists will provide frequent updates. Fans will flock to NCAA.com to see the updated NET rankings every morning. The teams will root for as few bid-stealers as possible — meaning schools that wouldn’t ordinarily reach the dance winning their conference tournaments to receive the automatic bid.
All projections at the moment include the regular-season champions from the AAC (South Florida) and Atlantic 10 (Richmond), but neither of them are in the mix for an at-large berth. Florida Atlantic (AAC) and Dayton (A-10) winning their respective conference tournaments would free up two extra spots.
With that in mind, here are the five most interesting bubble teams to watch.
Indiana State
Indiana State lost in the Missouri Valley Tournament championship game to Drake on Sunday and immediately debate began over social media. Detractors pointed to the Sycamores owning only a combined five Quad 1 and 2 wins of their 28 victories, a 1-4 record in Quad 1 games, the dreaded Quad 4 loss and not having a single win over an at-large. Supporters listed their strong metrics, highlighted by a NET ranking of 26 that won’t fall much after the loss to Drake — no team has ever been left out of the tournament with a top-30 NET — and the idea that Indiana State doesn’t get nearly the amount of opportunities that high-major schools receive for significant wins. It’s an argument that has been had for years: The mid-major with tons of wins, albeit against inferior competition, or the middle-of-the-road power-conference school? It’s going to be a stressful week for the Sycamores.
St. John’s
A few weeks ago, the Johnnies weren’t even being considered. They had lost eight of 10 games to fall three games under .500 in the Big East. A five-game winning streak to close out the regular season changed that. St. John’s is currently in the “last four in” in most projections. But it probably needs to win its Big East Tournament quarterfinal against Seton Hall to feel safe. Rick Pitino’s team has just one win over a consensus at-large team (Creighton) and a 3-9 record in Quad 1 wins after Villanova and Utah dropped in the NET rankings over the weekend, which are concerns. It is a solid 7-8 away from home, which is something the selection committee looks at, and its NET of 38 is decent enough. One of Villanova/Utah becoming a fourth Quad 1 win would certainly help. Ultimately, though, it’s hard to see the fifth-place team that reaches the tournament semifinals in a strong Big East being left out.
Villanova
Wins over tournament teams North Carolina, Texas Tech, Creighton and Seton Hall, and the first three were either neutral or on the road. Losses to St. Joseph’s, Butler, Drexel and Penn. Just a bizarre résumé. The Wildcats’ 14 losses will be a hindrance — only three teams with 15 losses (2019 Florida, 2018 Alabama, 2017 Vanderbilt) have ever earned an at-large bid — but they can lean on a NET of 32, and their 10-11 Quad 1 and 2 mark is certainly passable. Similar to St. John’s, they most likely need to reach the Big East Tournament semifinals. This is a team that, when on, can beat anybody. It obviously can lose to anyone as well.
TCU
Are the two high-level wins, at Baylor and over Houston, enough? Will the Horned Frogs’ 4-10 Quad 1 record and 357th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule preclude them? Just one sub-Quad 1 loss is a strength, and a NET ranking of 39 is solid. There are some similarities to Rutgers, a tournament snub last year, with TCU. The Scarlet Knights had quality metrics and four Quad 1 wins, but were punished for not scheduling well enough. One major difference: TCU has avoided the bad losses that did in Rutgers last March, which may do it.
Virginia
The old eye test would not be kind to the offensively challenged Cavaliers. They have failed to reach 50 points six times, are ranked 189th in offensive efficiency and own only two wins over the at-large field (Florida and Clemson). Virginia’s NET is a pedestrian 51, but it does not have a sub-Quad 2 loss. Winning a game in the ACC Tournament, against the Clemson-Boston College/Miami winner, is probably enough to reach the First Four in Dayton. Otherwise, they’ll be sweating in Charlottesville.
Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden, Wednesday-Saturday
Yes, I am biased since I cover this league, but there is no better conference tournament in the country when you take into account the venue, the city and quality of this conference. It will be particularly interesting this year, when you include the bubble factor, St. John’s, Villanova and Providence all needing at least one win to feel better about where they stand. There is defending national champion and top-seeded Connecticut as the favorite and No. 2 Creighton and No. 3 Marquette as the Huskies’ biggest threats. Four awesome days at MSG are on tap this week.
Seeding
1. Houston, Purdue, Connecticut, Tennessee
2. North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette, Arizona
3. Baylor, Creighton, Kentucky, Alabama
4. Duke, Auburn, Illinois, Kansas
Stock Watch
Up
Hubert Davis
Tip of the cap to the North Carolina coach and former Knick. There was immense pressure on him after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament last year, a lot of people (myself included) questioning whether he could do the job. He nailed the portal — Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) have been instrumental adds — got this group to play terrific defense and has led the Tar Heels to the ACC regular-season crown. North Carolina will likely be the No. 2 seed in the East Region, although landing the last No. 1 is not out of the question. This team can win it all. Davis deserves his flowers.
Tucker DeVries
Looking for a mid-major star to take March by storm? Look no further than Drake’s junior. The 6-foot-7 wing — coach Darian DeVries’ son — is a three-level scorer, the Bulldogs’ leading scorer (21.6) and distributor (3.6), and poured in 27 points along with seven rebounds and five assists in the Missouri Valley Conference title-game upset of Indiana State. After a 1-for-13 shooting performance in an opening-round loss to Miami in the tournament last year, he’ll be extra motivated.
Down
Duke
From losing at home to bitter rival North Carolina to star center Kyle Filipowski pulling a Grayson Allen by tripping Harrison Ingram and the “Cameron Crazies” throwing trash at the taunting Tar Heels, it was an ugly Saturday for the Blue Devils. Coach Jon Scheyer then apologized to fans for the performance before leaving the court. Filipowski told reporters he wasn’t aware that Ingram was behind him and his foot slipped, which didn’t look to be the case. It certainly appeared intentional. Duke is now 4-3 against projected tournament teams, an uneven record that doesn’t necessarily bode well for a deep run later this month.
DePaul
It’s one thing to be bad. It’s another to be DePaul. The Blue Demons wrapped up a winless season in the Big East on Saturday, going 0-20. Of those 20 losses, 15 were by 19 points or more. This is a program that hasn’t had a Big East winning record since 2006-07. Think about that. They are 52-257 in conference action over the last 17 years. DePaul has to nail its upcoming coaching search. The embarrassment has to stop at some point or the Big East has to begin to think about an unprecedented change. The Chicago Catholic school is bringing the league down.
