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Saint Joseph’s vs. George Mason prediction: Atlantic-10 Tournament picks, odds, best bets

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Social Links for Tanner McGrath, Action Network
Published March 13, 2024, 7:24 a.m. ET
Head coach Tony Skinn of the George Mason Patriots talks with Baraka Okojie #3 in the first half during a college basketball game against the Richmond Spiders.
George Mason is favored against Saint Joseph's in a late morning Atlantic-10 Tournament matchup Wednesday. Getty Images

The A-10 tournament has already brought us some chaos. 

Fordham led a heroic comeback to win in overtime against Davidson.

At the same time, La Salle sneaked past George Washington with a one-point win. 

Let’s see what day two has in store for us, starting with George Mason vs Saint Joseph’s in the eight-nine matchup with an 11:30 a.m. ET tip.

Saint Joseph’s vs. George Mason odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Saint Jospeh’s+1.5 (-120)-108o136.5 (-115)
George Mason-1.5 (-102)-111u136.5 (-105)
Odds via FanDuel

Saint Joseph’s vs. George Mason prediction

The Hawks run a five-out motion offense and a sag-off compact interior-based defense.

Essentially, they take a ton of 3s and allow many 3s. 

That doesn’t bode well for George Mason. 

Amari Kelly #23 of the George Mason Patriots drives to the basket in the first half during a college basketball game against the Richmond Spiders.
Amari Kelly #23 of the George Mason Patriots drives to the basket in the first half during a college basketball game against the Richmond Spiders. Getty Images

The Patriots rank 13th in the A-10 in 3-point rate allowed and 14th in Open 3 Rate allowed.

They also struggle to defend the secondary actions that makeup Saint Joe’s continuity motion offense. 

Meanwhile, they also rank 10th in the A-10 in 3-point rate, running a more downhill-driving isolation attack, which Saint Joe’s interior defense should stymie – especially considering the Hawks rank second in the conference in isolation PPP allowed (0.73). 

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The Hawks didn’t even shoot ridiculously in the first game, hitting eight of 22 attempts (36%) while generating a paltry 15 points on 20 spot-up opportunities (0.75 PPP). 

However, they did manage 12 points on six hand-off sets (2.00 PPP) and got open on 10 of their 19 catch-and-shot jump shots (53%). So, the Hawks mostly executed their secondary actions. 

Either way, they still won, and with more typical shooting splits – the Patriots shot an uncharacteristic 10-for-27 from 3 (37%) – Saint Joe’s should cruise to a big victory in the A-10 Tournament second round. 

Saint Joseph’s vs. George Mason pick

BET: Saint Joseph’s +1.5 (-120, FanDuel) | Play to PK