The Duke Blue Devils battle the NC State Wolfpack on Thursday night in Capital One Arena in this ACC Tournament quarterfinal game.
No. 10 seed NC State is gearing up for its third consecutive game in three days, and it stayed tough with No. 2 seed Duke in the only regular-season meeting … for 20 minutes.
The Devils took over down the stretch and won by 15.
I don’t love the Pack’s chances in the rematch, but there’s better betting value on the total.
NC State vs. Duke odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | +11.5 (-110) | +500 | o147 (-105) |
| Duke | -11.5 (-110) | -700 | u147 (-115) |
NC State vs Duke prediction
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Wolfpack offense revolves around DJ Horne and DJ Burns.
Horne, the point guard, runs downhill-driving perimeter ball-screens. Meanwhile, Burns, the overwhelmingly large center, runs post-up sets from the low block and elbow.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils’ offense revolves around Kyle Filipowksi’s dominant screen-and-roll game. He’s a savant with the hard and short roll, showing a savvy interior bag on the interior and excellent vision passing to perimeter shooters.
The metrics show that both teams are excellent against the opposing sets. Duke is the second-best team in the ACC by post-up PPP allowed, while NC State grades above the D-I average in roll-man PPP allowed.
And that panned out in the regular-season meeting, with these two combining to shoot 47-for-85 (55%) from two-point range.
Despite the efficient offense, the game stayed seven points under the closing total of 150.
Why is that?
There are two main reasons.
First, these are two slower-paced squads, and Duke should emphatically control the pace. The Blue Devils prefer to play lower-possession half-court battles, and their elite transition denial forces games into the half-court – they’re 18-13 to the Under this year.
As a result, the regular-season meeting featured only 15 points on 17 transition possessions, with NC State earning only two fast-break buckets. The game was played at a 57-possession pace, the lowest of any league game this year.
Second, neither team loves to shoot the 3, and NC State’s rim-based two-way play keeps games on the interior.
The Pack work almost exclusively through Burns in the post, and they run drop-coverage principles on defense that effectively deny perimeter shots – NC State ranks 12th in the ACC in 3-point rate and second in 3-point rate allowed.
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As a result, the regular-season meeting featured only 12 made 3s, even as both teams shot more than 30% from deep.
I expect more of the same in the rematch.
Duke and NC State should emphasize late shot-clock, two-point back-to-the-basket shots over running ‘n’ gunning.
The last three head-to-head matchups stayed Under, and I’m betting on a fourth consecutive one in the ACC quarterfinals on Thursday.Â
NC State vs. Duke pick
BET: Under 147 (-110, Caesars)