Trump leads Biden in crucial swing state and president’s birthplace, Pennsylvania: poll
Former President Donald Trump has a clear lead over President Biden in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania — where the incumbent was born and lived off and on during his childhood, according to a new poll.
Trump recorded 47% support among Keystone State registered voters to Biden’s 43%, with the remaining 10% undecided, the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found.
When the so-called “lean” of undecided voters was taken into account, the 77-year-old Republican led the 81-year-old Democrat 52% to 48%.
“There is a distinction in motivation between Biden and Trump voters,” explained Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue (28%), like Trump (27%), or dislike Biden (21%), whereas a plurality of Biden voters (33%) support the president because they dislike Trump and 24% support Biden because they like him as a candidate.”
Biden’s job approval rating is underwater by 17 percentage points in Pennsylvania, with 38% approving of his work and 55% disapproving.
By contrast, the commonwealth’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, has a plus-16 net favorability rating, with 47% approving of the job he’s doing and 31% disapproving.
Voters favored Trump over Biden to handle the issues of immigration and border security (54%-46%) and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war (52%-48%). By contrast, Pennsylvanians favored Biden over Trump on the issue of abortion by 14 percentage points (57%-43%).
Just 58% of voters had doubts about voting for Biden due to his age, while 55% shared similar concerns about Trump’s legal woes. More than three-fifths of independents (61%) said both issues raise doubts about backing either man.
The 45th president enjoys a very slim 0.6 percentage-point lead over his successor in the most recent RealClearPolitics average of Pennsylvania polling.
Earlier this week, both Biden and Trump were projected to win the necessary delegates to clinch their respective party’s nomination.
With 19 electoral votes up for grabs, Pennsylvania is regarded as one of the key swing states in this year’s election.
In 2016, commonwealth voters backed Trump, the first time the state had gone Republican since 1988. In 2020, Biden knocked off Trump by 1.2 percentage points.
Pennsylvania is also hosting a closely watched Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican businessman Dave McCormick.
Casey, 63, who has served in the Senate since 2007, leads McCormick 45% to 41%, with 14% of voters undecided.
When undecided “leaners” were made to pick a candidate, Casey led 52% to 48%.
The Emerson/Hill survey shows the race has tightened from February, when Casey led McCormick 49% to 39% with 13% undecided.
McCormick, 58, unsuccessfully vied for the GOP Senate nomination in 2022, losing out to celebrity heart surgeon and TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz, who went on to fall in the general election to Democrat John Fetterman.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Pennsylvania registered voters March 10-13, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
