The hunt for value takes us to the other side of the world this weekend as the Gold Coast Suns host the Adelaide Crows in Round 1 of the 2024 AFL (Australian Football League) campaign.
Except “Round 1” is a bit of a misnomer.
This season the AFL decided to copy College Football’s “Week Zero” initiative and handpicked eight teams to open the season last weekend in what they dubbed “Round Zero.”
The idea was to lean into some of the best storylines from the previous year (rematches from the playoffs, coaches/players playing against their old team, etc.) to ensure that there was ample buzz to launch the campaign.
The idea seemed to work as stadiums were sold out across Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, but the elephant in the room is that the league, and its 18 member teams, acknowledged that the idea would create some competitive imbalance in Round 1, with a distinct advantage going to clubs who played in Round Zero in matchups against ones that didn’t.
One of those matchups will take place in the wee hours of Saturday morning when the Gold Coast Suns, who were terrific in a rout against the Richmond Tigers last week, host the Adelaide Crows.
Gold Coast is a 7.5-point favorite at the time of writing and that seems a bit short considering they have home-field advantage and, crucially, have already played a competitive match.
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But it’s not just the schedule spot that makes this worth a play.
Gold Coast also has one of the most dynamic rosters in the competition, especially with Matt Rowell looking like a serious Brownlow Medal (MVP) candidate out of the gates.
The betting market may take some time to catch up to the Suns under new head coach Damien Hardwick, so get on them before the secret is out.
The play: Gold Coast Suns -7.5 (-110, DraftKings)