North Carolina State pulled out a miracle on Friday night, banking in a downtown heave at the buzzer to send its game with Virginia to overtime.
The Wolfpack went on to win the game in overtime, setting up an in-state rivalry matchup for the ACC Tournament title.
The Wolfpack ended the regular season losing seven of nine but have now won four games in four days, including knocking off Duke.
March. What a month.
The Tar Heels are a significant favorite on Saturday.
NC State vs North Carolina Odds (Via FanDuel)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| NC State | +8.5 (-102) | +340 | o146.5 (-110) |
| North Carolina | -8.5 (-120) | -450 | u146.5 (-110) |
NC State vs. North Carolina Prediction
(8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
North Carolina runs what I like to call a “pace-and-post” offense.
The Tar Heels push the pace with their three-guard backcourt of Elliot Cadeau, Cormac Ryan, and RJ Davis.
Those three either create in the middle of the court or dump the ball to Armando Bacot down low.
As a result, North Carolina ranks among the nation’s best teams in transition PPP (1.10, 73rd percentile) and post-up PPP (.95, 81st percentile).
That’s a massive problem for the Pack, which ranks 12th in the ACC in transition PPP allowed (1.07) and ninth in post-up PPP allowed (.89).
Among ACC teams, NC State allowed the third-most fast-break points per game (10.5) and the 11th-most paint points per game (31.9).
Additionally, Bacot loves crashing the offensive boards, so the Heels rank second in the ACC in second-chance points per game (12).
And the Pack cannot rebound, ranking second-last in the league in defensive rebounding rate and ninth in second-chance points per game allowed (9.5).
However, North Carolina’s low-block defense is vulnerable, ranking 10th in the ACC in post-up PPP allowed (.89).
And that’s a problem against DJ Burns, NC State’s 275-pound post-merchant with the nation’s most unique combination of size and skill.
It’s a fascinating matchup and a tough one to handicap, as neither regular-season game played out quite as I expected.
Both were lower-scoring affairs that featured few fast-break and second-chance buckets, and neither team shot exceptionally from the interior.
That said, I’m willing to forego the head-to-head matchups and take a shot with the Over.
Both squads have viable offensive avenues, and the ShotQualityBets model projects the total closer to 155 than 145.
Plus, this is a surprisingly low total for this rivalry matchup, as the last five have closed in the mid-150s.
I think we’re getting a discounted number in a Tournament championship setting, and I think these teams start figuring out the opponent’s defense in the third meeting.
NC State vs. North Carolina Pick
Over 146.5 | Play to 148