The Big East will take center stage Sunday night, but for all the wrong reasons. A wild day could limit the number of teams the conference sends to the NCAA Tournament.
The league is in the thick of bubble talk, with three teams — St. John’s, Providence and Seton Hall — all anxiously waiting to hear what happens when the pairings are announced by the selection committee.
But several bid-stealers have lowered the amount of at-large bids available. Projected tournament teams Dayton (Atlantic 10) and Florida Atlantic (AAC) bowed out early in their respective conference tournaments, and N.C. State (ACC) and Oregon (Pac-12) were surprise winners. So there will be four fewer at-large bids. Some bracketologists think it’s possible the league sends only three teams to the tournament.
The three locks are Connecticut, Creighton and Marquette, and then a series of question marks with the aforementioned trio. St. John’s owns the best metrics, with a NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) ranking of 34, considerably higher than Providence (57) and Seton Hall (66). The team with the best NET ranking to miss the tournament was N.C. State (33) in 2019.
Providence and Seton Hall own more high-level victories — the Pirates have wins over Connecticut and Marquette while the Friars have beaten Wisconsin, Creighton and Marquette — than St. John’s.
The Johnnies are playing the best, and pass the eye test, having won six of their last seven games with the lone loss coming to the dominant Huskies on Friday night by five.
It crushed Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday.
A lot has gone wrong for the league in the last few days, as bubble teams such as Colorado, Mississippi State, New Mexico and Texas A&M have picked up significant victories to boost their résumés.
This is the overwhelming storyline of Sunday’s selection show. It is a tight bubble that got even tighter.
There isn’t much suspense with the No. 1 seeds. Houston, Connecticut and Purdue will be the first three, followed by most likely Tennessee or North Carolina.
Despite the loss to NC State, the Tar Heels own the edge.
They have the better record in Quad 1 and 2 games, 16-7 compared to 13-8, and also have three more wins away from home. Iowa State could be a dark horse for the last No. 1, after beating Houston for the second time on Saturday in impressive fashion.
Lastly, there are the locals.
If St. John’s and/or Seton Hall wind up in Dayton for the First Four, they will have company. Wagner, the surprising winner of the NEC, is a lock to be there. It is 16-15 with a NET ranking of 288 — the lowest of any team in the field.
Saint Peter’s defeated Fairfield on Saturday night and could join Wagner in Dayton.
Ironically, the Peacocks’ coach, Bashir Mason, was previously at Wagner for 10 seasons and never made the tournament. Current Wagner coach Donald Copeland was his assistant from 2017-21. That would be a fun matchup.