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Why Hamas ‘holds all the cards’ over the fate of Israeli captives, according to hostage expert

Hamas currently “holds all the cards” over the fate of the Israeli hostages — and any chance of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, according to a hostage recovery expert.

As the US pushes Hamas to accept a deal to release 40 hostages in exchange for a six-week pause in fighting, the terror group’s leaders has very little incentive to agree to terms that don’t greatly benefit them, Christopher O’Leary, a former senior FBI official who led many hostage recovery teams, told The Post.

“Hamas knows the power behind its hostages, they have a reference point,” O’Leary said.

Key in Hamas leaders’ minds, O’Leary said, is the 2011 deal that freed the single IDF soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for for 1,026 Palestinian prisoners, including Hamas’ current Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar

“Hamas holds all the cards and leverage, and Israel doesn’t have the benefit of time,” he added. 

Israel faces near daily protests in Tel Aviv from demonstrators demanding action to rescue the 134 hostages in Gaza. Getty Images
Relatives of Hamas’ captive Omer Neutra, 22, plead for his safe return. AFP via Getty Images

The Israeli government faces both internal and external pressures to accept a cease-fire deal, with scores of protesters taking to the streets of Tel-Aviv almost every day to call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do everything in his power to free the remaining hostages.

The Israeli government believes that 34 hostages have been killed, leaving 100 hostages still in Gaza.

Of the 240 people who were taken captive in the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack on southern Israel, 105 were released as part of a ceasefire deal and four were released by Hamas early in the war.

Three hostages who fled their Hamas captors were also killed by Israeli soldiers, who mistook them for terrorists attempting to trick them.

Just two captives have been rescued alive by Israeli soldiers, O’Leary pointed out.

Hamas has claimed that many of the dead hostages were killed due to Israel’s bombardments in Gaza, including Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itai Svirsky, 38, whose bodies were featured in propaganda videos released by the terror group in January.

Hamas forced surviving hostage Noa Argamani to announce their deaths, similar to a previous video where father-of-two Yarden Bibas announced the deaths of his kids and wife due to an alleged Israeli airstrike.

Shiri Bibas was kidnapped on Oct. 7 with her two young sons, all three of whom are believed to be dead following a Hamas propaganda video.
Yarden Bibas, whose kidnapping was also filmed, was forced to announce his family’s alleged death. AP

Several of the hostages who were released during the week-long ceasefire in November criticized Israeli bombardments that hit near where they were being held.

O’Leary said Israel’s military activity in Gaza shows its forces are more focused on fighting Hamas and taking out the groups’ infrastructure than with rescuing hostages.

“They’ve gone about an urban assault — much different than what experts would have advised,” he said. “You’re supposed to go in searching for the hostages.”

He said it appears that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have not been able to find key intelligence about the whereabouts of the hostages after more than five months of combat in the Palestinian-controlled territory.

The IDF continues its military pressure on Gaza, having destroyed 75% of the terror group’s battalions. via REUTERS
Christopher O’Leary is a former senior FBI official who led many hostage recovery teams. The Soufan Group

Netanyahu has maintained that military pressure is the best way to free the hostages, with the prime minister touting that 18 of Hamas’ 24 terrorist battalions have been crushed, with four of the remaining units believed to be stationed in Rafah.

Despite the IDFs advancements, Hamas has not faltered in its demands and continues to reject cease-fire proposals presented by negotiators.

Over the weekend, Hamas has again presented its own agreement, calling on a permanent cease-fire and the release of up to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the remaining women, minors and elderly in captivity.